Fighting in the Caucusus continues on Monday, with Georgia claiming that up to 50 Russian jets bombed the country overnight and the Russian side reporting that Georgian forces shelled Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia, on Monday morning. Even more ominous, despite European and American efforts to broker a ceasefire, the war of words appears to be escalating.
US President George W. Bush hit hard at Russia on Monday saying that the Russian response to Georgian aggression in South Ossetia -- a breakaway region formally part of Georgia -- was "disproportionate." Speaking from Beijing, where he has been attending the Olympic Games, Bush told NBC television "I've expressed my grave concern about the disproportionate response of Russia and that we strongly condemn the bombing outside of South Ossetia."
The American president said he had spoken with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who also attended the opening of the Games, as well as by phone with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. US Vice President Dick Cheney delivered a message of his own on Sunday, saying that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States."
NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer echoed US concerns. His spokeswoman Carmen Romero said on Sunday evening that Scheffer "is seriously concerned about the disproportionate use of force by the Russians and the lack of respect for the territorial integrity of Georgia."
So far, the rhetoric has had little effect on the war in the region, now entering its fifth day. Reuters reported sounds of explosions in Tskhinvali on Monday morning with Russia saying that three soldiers had been killed and 18 wounded by Katyusha rockets fired by Georgia. Russian planes targeted a radar site on the outskirts of the Georgian capital Tbilisi as well as other targets deep within Georgia overnight. Russian General Sergei Chaban, commander of Russian troops in Abkhazia -- a second restive province belonging to Georgia -- demanded that Georgian troops near Abkhazia disarm or face a Russian advance into Georgia.
The growing conflict has made many in the West increasingly nervous. Not only do pipelines through Georgia deliver much-needed oil to Europe, but Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has made repeated overtures to the West and the US has sponsored the country's drive to become part of NATO. Indeed, the US has been ferrying some 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq back to Georgia to help out with the fighting back home.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is now in the region in an attempt to push through an immediate ceasefire. After meeting with Saakashvili, Kouchner said on Monday that the Georgian president was "determined to make peace." Speaking to French radio, Kouchner said: "Peace has to return and civilian populations have to be protected, that's the only thing, and from that point of view, President Saakashvili accepted pretty much all the proposals we made."
The European Commission backed up Kouchner's mission, saying Europe was providing 1 million ($1.52 million) in humanitarian aid for civilians in South Ossetia. EU Aid and Development Commissioner Louis Michel said the commission was "extremely concerned about the fighting and deplores the loss of lives and the human suffering it causes…. We call for an immediate end of hostilities," according to Reuters.
Still, despite Saakashvili's apparent desire to end the fighting, peace for the moment depends largely on the intentions of Russia. The violence began when Georgian forces invaded South Ossetia last Thursday night, ostensibly to bring the region back under Georgian control. The region had been increasingly restive in recent months and Russia, extremely wary of Georgia's overtures to the West, had even moved "peacekeepers" into both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and granted citizens of those regions Russian passports.
Now, Russia seems intent on establishing even firmer control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It has sent 9,000 additional troops to Abkhazia, according to General Chaban, and has also blocked sea access to Georgia by stationing war ships off the coast in the Black Sea. Ukraine, which controls much of the Black Sea, has warned Russia that it might not allow those ships back to their port on the Crimea Peninsula if Russia continues the blockade.
On Sunday in New York, Russia and the US engaged in a bit of Cold War bickering as a result of the conflict. US Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad accused the Russians of wanting "regime change" in Georgia and said that Russian troops were operating a "campaign of terror" against Georgian civilians. Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin responded by saying that "regime change is purely an American invention" and said that Khalilzad's used of the word "terror" was "completely unacceptable."
It remains unclear how many people have died in the conflict so far. Russia has said that 2,000 civilians died in the South Ossetian capital as a result of the Georgian invasion. Georgian officials have said that 130 civilians and soldiers had been killed and well over a thousand wounded. The Red Cross estimates that 40,000 people have fled the violence.
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