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The Caucasus Crisis

'The US Has More Important Concerns Right Now'

Respected American Russia expert Clifford Gaddy warns in a SPIEGEL ONLINE interview that sanctions against Russia for invading Georgia could backfire. Although he does not expect Europe to antagonize Russia, he thinks it will deplore the violence and urge restraint.

AFP

Russian troops, flanked by some journalists, drive out from Gori on Wednesday on the road leading to Tbilisi.

Clifford G. Gaddy: No.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Are sanctions the right answer?

Gaddy: Hardly. I cannot imagine what sort of sanctions there might be, even if one were persuaded that a sanctions policy would be desirable. Economic sanctions are unthinkable because the Russians have more leverage over us than vice-versa. Legal and political sanctions -- like kicking Russia out of the G-8, barring Russia from World Trade Organization membership, and so on -- would be ineffectual at best and counterproductive at worst. They are all of the "let's-shoot-ourselves-in-the-foot" variety.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What are you expecting from the Europeans in this situation?

Gaddy: Deplore the violence, urge restraint, plead for a peace settlement, avoid antagonizing the Russians too much. More productively, perhaps they will take the opportunity to engage one another in a serious but quiet discussion about where Russia is headed, what it really wants, and what the West can and should do in the long term.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: A few months back US President George W. Bush wanted to help pave the way for future Georgian membership in NATO. Was it a huge political mistake?

Gaddy: Yes.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Do you think we are seeing the start of a new power struggle between Washington and Moscow that could continue for years to come?

Gaddy: No. The US has far too many other, more important concerns right now, and Russia is not interested in a struggle with the US. But the main reason there will not be a power struggle is that there is nothing to struggle over. The US has already lost its former role as world leader. Russia neither wants to, or is able to, to replace it. Russia's goal is rather a negative one: to ensure that no threat to it can emerge from the territory of the states closest to its borders. It will therefore continue to bully its neighbors in various ways. Russia's behavior will be morally unacceptable to the US, but it will not be generally perceived as threatening to the US. In the end, the rhetoric between Russia and the US will become hotter, and relations will become cooler. But there will not be a power struggle.

Interview conducted by Gabor Steingart.

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