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  The Dangerous Neighbor: Vladimir Putin Takes on a Powerless West

The Dangerous Neighbor Vladimir Putin Takes on a Powerless West

Part 4: Grim Non-Action in Washington

Putin is living proof of the fallacy of this statement, and Bush, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Georgia, has been exposed, once again, as a loudmouth. The new Russia is in fact absolutely opposed to looking anything like the old West, says Strobe Talbott, who served as deputy to former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. According to Talbott, the message Putin sent to the West via Georgia consists of three partial messages. First, Russia is back on the world stage. Second, Russia wants new power, but not a return to the days of political ideology and economic autarchy. Third, Russia wants to set the terms of its integration into the new world order itself.

But this means nothing less than that the premises of American foreign policy, from former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton to the current President Bush, were wrong, says Talbott. This policy was always based on the assumption, according to Talbott, that Russia wanted to allow itself to be integrated into the existing Western architecture, including NATO, the Group of Eight (G-8) Industrialized Nations, the World Trade Organization and, in the end, perhaps even the European Union. "Now we know that this premise is wrong."

This left the members of the Bush administration looking somewhat helpless as they stood in front of their star-spangled banners throughout last week's crisis, although it did not prevent them from sharply criticizing and threatening Moscow. Britain's Guardian newspaper promptly characterized the West "as a bunch of tough-talking windbags."

US Vice President Richard Cheney proved to be the supreme windbag when he said that the invasion "must not go unanswered," even though everyone in Washington knows that the only answer will be grim non-action.

The verbal escalation reached its high point last Wednesday, when Bush, escorted by Secretary of State Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, appeared at a press conference in the White House Rose Garden to read the following message: With its behavior, Russia risks its place in "the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century." At the same time, Bush announced that two military transport aircraft containing food and blankets were on their way to Tbilisi.

But that was the extent of it. When Georgia's president thanked Washington for the assistance and said that a "turning point" had occurred in the conflict, now that America was willing to defend Georgia's airports and keep its seaports open, Bush had no other choice but to make sure this was promptly denied. No one in Washington wants a military conflict with the Russian army. Even the widely read columnist Charles Krauthammer dismissed the notion. "Let's be realistic," he wrote in the Washington Post.

Politically speaking, however, the Americans now have their hands full trying to rescue the international reputation of their Georgian ally, Saakashvili. Shortly after the end of their military action, the Russians demanded his head. Tens of thousands of Georgians gathered around their president last week on Rustaveli Boulevard in Tbilisi. In a bizarre mixture of mourning and defiance, men's choirs sang solemn songs while two young girls, with fear in their eyes, held up a hand-painted sign that read: "We are not afraid of Russia."

But many Georgians are also irritated with their president, who last week led them into their greatest defeat since independence. Political forces are already waiting in the wings to bring about a change in direction.

In addition to Levan Gachechiladze, the presidential candidate who lost the election in January, two former members of the government are among Saakashvili's irreconcilable adversaries: Georgy Khaindrava, the former minister of conflict resolution, and former Foreign Minister Salomé Zourabichvili. Both resigned from the government after accusing Saakashvili of abuse of power.

Now another long-standing ally of Saakashvili is distancing himself from the autocratic leader. Nino Burjanadze, the former parliamentary speaker, accuses him of "not including the opposition in the political process." Burjanadze, who enjoys strong connections within the Georgian elite, is seen as a smart tactician. Moscow could very well accept her as a compromise candidate.

But that point hasn't been reached yet. International shuttle diplomacy is currently the order of the day. After EU Council President Nicolas Sarkozy's mediation effort, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Secretary of State Rice also visited the crisis region. They explored the terrain, attempting to discover how far Putin, who has now turned over the diplomatic formalities to President Medvedev, would go.

What is happening in the Caucasus? What happens next? In the best case scenario, Moscow will withdraw its troops from Georgia. The country will survive, but Saakashvili will have to write off the contested provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia once and for all. The military adventure will likely cost Saakashvili his job, if not today, tomorrow. In the longer term, dreams of NATO membership, both for Georgia and Ukraine, will likely turn into pipe dreams.

Perhaps the rest of the world will now look more closely at the hidden spots between Europe and Asia, into provinces and ethnic groups whose names they can hardly pronounce. The West's outrage over Moscow's military escapade will likely subside in a few weeks, and even America will return to politics as usual. Washington urgently needs Russia, both to keep Iran in check and as a counterbalance to China, a rising major power. America's new president, whether it will be Democratic candidate Barack Obama or Republican John McCain, will have to seek allies again to grapple with the world's conflicts.

But Russian Prime Minister Putin is clearly the victor here, after having taken control of the Caucasus crisis decisively and efficiently, by Russian standards. The world now knows that Russia is asserting stronger claims to be a major power alongside the United States.

The war is as good as over, and Putin the military commander is withdrawing. It was Medvedev who was forced to meet with foreign dignitaries who had come to complain about the Georgian conflict. Russian state television also returned to coverage of the nominal head of state.

After completing his work, Putin returned to a more behind-the-scenes role. He was seen conferring with financial experts in the drab Moscow conference room at his headquarters. They were discussing the planning for the Russian national budget -- until 2023.

It looks like he will be around for some time to come.

THOMAS DARNSTÄDT, UWE KLUSSMANN, CHRISTIAN NEEF, MATTHIAS SCHEPP, GABOR STEINGART

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan.

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