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Berlin's Ambassador to Baghdad

'Where Are the Germans?'

Hanns H. Schumacher, 59, was the German ambassador to Iraq until mid-August. Before rotating to Thailand in the fall, he talks to SPIEGEL about security in Iraq, Germany's role in the nation's reconstruction and the surprising success of Prime Minister al-Maliki.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Ambassador, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama wants to withdraw US troops from Iraq by mid-2010, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki envisions a withdrawal by 2011. Is the government already capable of providing security and stability on its own?

Schumacher: Although I believe that Washington's assessment that al-Qaida has been "defeated" here in Iraq is exaggerated, it is certainly my personal impression that daily life has normalized. People are on the streets, families are going out, the flow of refugees has stopped and, according to the United Nations, 10,000 refugees are returning each month. The relationship with neighboring countries also seems to have improved. For some time now, I have not heard -- not even from Americans -- claims that, for example, terrorists are entering the country across the Syrian border or accusations that Tehran is supporting militant groups in Iraq. This leads me to conclude that both neighbors are interested in the stabilization of Iraq.

SPIEGEL: The radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who has fled to Iran, is a factor of uncertainty. Could he merely be waiting for the Americans to withdraw, so that he can mobilize his supporters against the government?

Schumacher: Sadr has no unified alliance or homogenous militia supporting him. This has been evident again and again. He has followers, but he is not completely in control of them. However, it is remarkable that there has been calm since he last called upon his followers to renounce violence. I assume this is partly the result of ongoing negotiations over a security treaty with Washington. Sadr controls a faction of 35 members of parliament, and he has been consistent in calling for withdrawal of the Americans before there can be constructive participation in the stabilization process.

SPIEGEL: Doesn't Sadr stand in the way of reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis?

Schumacher: He is not the central agitator, but his role does in fact remain a bit vague. One reason the important provincial elections will probably not materialize this year, for example, is fear on the part of the established Shiite parties, the Islamic Council and al-Maliki's Dawa Party that Sadr could gain too much influence.

SPIEGEL: How much influence does Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the religious leader of the Shiites, still have? He has kept a low profile for a long time.

Schumacher: He remains one of the central political figures in Iraq. His public restraint is in keeping with the tradition of his predecessors. He prefers to control things behind the scenes. To this day, he has consistently refused to meet with Western representatives. However, he did speak with the representative of the United Nations, Staffan de Mistura, recently.

SPIEGEL: And what was the outcome?

Schumacher: It was confirmed that Sistani is extremely well informed about the difficulties the Baghdad central government has when it comes to making decisions on important political issues -- from the amnesty law to the oil law to budget matters. It is notable that both Prime Minister al-Maliki and the leaders of the Islamic Council make regular trips to the religious center in Najaf to consult with Sistani. To the best of our knowledge, his influence is constructive.

SPIEGEL: This month, the Americans transferred the control of Anbar Province west of Baghdad, the bloodiest in the country only a few months ago, to Iraqi security forces. A breakthrough?

Schumacher: The breakthrough was already achieved when the Americans managed to win over the tribes and cooperate with them. In doing so, they deprived al-Qaida of its base of operations in Anbar. Meanwhile, there have been even more changes among the Sunni tribal leaders in this province which have gone largely unnoticed. The tribes want to organize themselves into political parties, so that they can participate in the decision-making process. In my view, this is one of the strongest indications that a process of stabilization is underway in Iraq.

SPIEGEL: Does this strengthen the role of Sunnis, a minority in Iraq, within the political balance of power?

Schumacher: At the moment, the traditional Sunni parties are still eying developments among the tribal groups with suspicion, waiting to see whether this will undermine their own positions of power. But the tribal leaders, who received financial compensation from the Americans for changing sides, now want to play a political role.

SPIEGEL: Does that mean the strategy of General David Petraeus -- cooperating with the Sunnis in order to isolate al-Qaida and the insurgents -- was a resounding success?

Schumacher: It was a success, yes. It will only be resounding once the members of the Sunni militias, who still live on American funding, have been integrated into a functioning political system. Prime Minister Maliki is still adhering to his principle of investigating each individual militia member to determine whether he was involved in terrorist attacks. This can delay the reconciliation process considerably.

SPIEGEL: Maliki wants to portray himself as a national leader, independent of the Americans, but also above Shiite, Sunni or Kurdish partisan interests. Will he succeed?

Schumacher: He has demonstrated his leadership qualities and proven that the Iraqi army can now conduct military operations, both independently and successfully. This has given him enormous political self-assurance. Because he acted against both Shiite and Sunni terrorist groups, Maliki has surprisingly strengthened his position with the Sunnis.

SPIEGEL: Is Maliki the real surprise of the last few months?

Schumacher: Yes, and we must not forget that he was the candidate of the smaller Shiite party and only came into office because the larger coalition partner, the Islamic Council, did not put forward a candidate of its own. Now he has even managed to open up his country -- which has always been anti-Western, throughout its history -- toward Europe. He has sought contact with the European Union, because, of course, he also needs a counterweight to American influence. Nevertheless, this is a very special, virtually historic achievement.

SPIEGEL: What role can the EU, and especially Germany, play in Iraq?

Schumacher: Iraq needs aid, but by no means financial assistance, because the country is swimming in money and will become more wealthy as oil production increases. What the country needs is rapid assistance with major infrastructure projects, in modernizing its oil production facilities and, of course, in training its workforce.

SPIEGEL: Would you advise German companies to return to Iraq?

Schumacher: The improved security situation is not the only reason to do so. If security issues are dealt with responsibly, old contacts can be re-established. Besides, Germans have a strong reputation in Iraq, and not just because we did not participate in the war. Since the 1960s, and into the 1980s, German companies were among the country's most important economic partners in the construction of power plants, roads and the Baghdad Museum. Officials in Baghdad's government ministries are specifically asking: Where are the Germans? Where are the German partners we remember from the past?

SPIEGEL: If the security treaty with the United States does not materialize as quickly as anticipated, could this pose a problem for reconstruction?

Schumacher: No. Baghdad could ask the United Nations Security Council to extend the UN mandate, which expires at the end of the year, until further notice. This would not be a catastrophe. But I am convinced that by the time it becomes clear who the future US president will be, the decision on the security treaty will also be reached.

SPIEGEL: Would a model similar to that used in postwar Germany make sense: permanent US bases in the country?

Schumacher: The chances of achieving lasting stability and security are far greater if Iraq can rely on its own forces, without a foreign military presence. Then it may be possible to establish a truly democratic system in Iraq, for the first time in its history.

Interview conducted by Manfred Ertel and Gerhard Spörl.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan.