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From Russia with Love

Rockets and Best Wishes for Obama

By Moritz Gathmann in Moscow

Russia wasted no time in demonstrating to America's new president-elect that he was going to play hardball. Indeed, US-Russian relations may not improve at all with Obama at the helm.

Russian-American relations have seldom been as poor as they are in 2008. The war between Russia and Georgia combined with Washington clearly taking sides with the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili was the topping on a cake full of conflicts and disagreements during the administration of President George W. Bush.

From the American recognition of the independence of Kosovo to the staunch support for the accession of both Georgia and Ukraine into NATO to the progress made toward completing an anti-missile shield using bases in Poland and the Czech Republic -- almost every move Bush made seemed from the perspective of Moscow like another step on the road toward encirclement.

Indeed, on Wednesday, almost before Obama had even begun his first full day as America's president-elect, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia would base short-range Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave that borders Lithuania and Poland.

"We can especially celebrate the fact that the Bush era has come to an end," says Leonid Gankin, foreign desk editor at the newspaper Kommersant. The Bush administration, he says, represented a "gigantic blow to Russian democracy." American unilateralism and militarism, he says, fuelled a growing anti-American sentiment in Russia and led to a more general rejection of Western values. Still, Gankin expects little more than minor adjustments when it comes to America's policies regarding missile defense, NATO's eastward expansion and Iran. "Still, I am hopeful that Obama will proceed more sensibly and will seek out compromise," Gankin says.

Traditionally, Russian politicians and political science experts have preferred Republican presidents in the US because they are more predictable. "Democrats have to constantly battle the accusation that they aren't patriotic," Gankin says. The result is that they are wary of taking large foreign policy steps -- and that the most important US-Russia treaties tend to be signed when Washington is in the hands of the Republicans.

Political scientist Alexander Nagorny agrees. "Obama's victory is the worst outcome for Russia." He argues that the president-elect will reduce the intensity of the conflict with the Muslim world, particularly by reducing America's military presence in the Middle East. In particular, Nagorny anticipates that Obama will withdraw US troops from Iraq within a year and a half and that he will seek to promote moderation in American dealings with Iran. "All of this together will lead to a further drop in oil prices, which is bad for Russia," he says.

Furthermore, Nagorny expects that Obama will emphasize his democratic convictions, and thus provoke new conflicts with Russia over human rights. Nagorny is only able to find a single positive aspect to Obama's having been elected: The US, he says, will no longer seek to play such a great role in Georgia or Ukraine. "The risk of military confrontation between the US and Russia will thus be reduced," he says.