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Confrontation or Cooperation?

The New Russia Is no Longer a Crippled Giant

By Sergej Karaganov

Part 3: A New Era of Cooperation

Iran will most likely acquire nuclear arms. The leading nuclear nations should prepare multilateral contingency plans to prevent a chain reaction of proliferation and guarantee other nations in the greater Middle East protection from a nuclear threat. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other nations of the region should not be left on their own. In the meantime, a coalition of powers should force the United States to negotiate a "big deal" with Tehran to try to prevent it from becoming nuclear. Hopefully, we still have time for that.

Amid declining international governance, a new strategy of institution–building has been long awaited. Russia should help strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to transform it into a new comprehensive alliance in order to fill the political security vacuums in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. The SCO leaders should do their utmost to include India, and maybe even Iran and Saudi Arabia. In the present situation of multiple governance vacuums, new institutions can be numerous and of variable combinations. The recent cooperation among the BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) serves as a good example.

Now we step onto the dangerous ground of challenging the idea of multipolarity, which has now become almost everybody's intellectual darling. It is either viewed as a counterbalance to unipolarity -- which never existed -- or it is actually the old balance of powers approach in a markedly more dynamic world. In my opinion, it is a prescription for chaos. To address the new challenges, we have to return to the idea of a new "concert of powers," a G8-13 consisting of powerful and responsible nations, and the only healthy and successful supranational organization -- the European Union. It should work along with the United Nations, but it should not be bound by the decisions or indecision of the almost 200 countries. In order to be effective, it will have to form a permanent secretariat, have a continuous decision-making and implementation mechanism -- and even a treaty. Eventually, a G8-13 should find ways to agree on common strategies, adhere to them and, hopefully, be able to enforce them. Moreover, it should form a new set of innovative think tanks that could provide a clearer view of the world than most of the existing ones, trapped as they are in their ways of thinking and vested interests.

Energy is an area that needs special institutional attention. It is now characterized by cut-throat competition that is ominously becoming militarized (there is even talk of an energy NATO). The International Energy Agency is no help here as it merely performs recording functions. But the real cause of the collision between producers and consumers is almost never mentioned: It is the price of a barrel of oil. And that price is negotiable unless it is imposed by means of force.

To overcome this tug of war, Russia has made offers to Europe to swap assets: Europe will own a part of Russian oil and gas fields if Russia gets a part of European distribution networks. In fact, "Grands for All" -- a European energy consortium or alliance -- is one proposal. The Europeans have not yet accepted the idea. The Americans, fearful of losing their influence in Europe, are fighting the deal like they fought the gas-pipeline deal almost half a century ago.

I realize that a G8-13 may be seen as another manifestation of "reactionary romanticism." But I do not see any other alternative to the eventual series of conflicts leading to a large war -- because never in human history have we seen in such a short period such a multiplicity of profound shifts in economic, financial, climatic, food, security, and nuclear challenges, in addition to enormous redistributions of power. If we are able to adjust to the changes, the future will offer us more freedom, democracy, and prosperity. But for that we need peace. The beginning of the 20th century offered the world a similar chance. But governance failed, and the world plunged into two horrible world wars. So the seemingly obsolete fight for peace and stability should once again become the key driver in international politics. If we succeed in dealing with new challenges, the New Era of Cooperation will become a reality and not just a pipedream.

Sergej Karaganov is dean of the School of International and Foreign Affairs at the State University Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

To read the footnotes and sources related to this article, please visit the Web site of our partner Internationale Politik Global Edition.

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