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  Dealing With Tehran: Iran Could Blow Up in Obama's Face

Dealing With Tehran Iran Could Blow Up in Obama's Face

By Gregor Peter Schmitz

Part 2: Contemplating a 'Grand Bargain'

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analyst Karim Sadjadpour recommended a more prudent approach on National Public Radio (NPR): "If we immediately approach Iran and give them ultimatums on the nuclear issue and on Israel, the likelihood is that we'll forsake building confidence with them and bringing about more cooperative Iranian behavior on the other issues."

After all, the two countries share common interests: hoping for stability in Iraq and worrying about a newly-strengthened Taliban in Afghanistan. Among the Iranian people, sympathy for America is great.

So is a "grand bargain" between Tehran and Washington, whereby Iran would halt its nuclear plans in exchange for consideration of its security interests, concievable? Pickering has sketched some of the possible components: a renunciation from Washington of the idea of toppling the Iranian regime, the integration of Tehran into a security architecture for the region and comprehensive offers of economic cooperation.

Still, such a rapprochement could take years. The level of trust between the two countries, which haven't had normal diplomatic relations since 1979, is practically nonexistent. Even Iran experts in Washington puzzle over who really speaks for the regime in Tehran -- and whether Iran might secretly nurture the hope of soon being able to control the region, given America's weakness. Moreover, such a rapprochement might well inspire worry in America's close ally Israel -- though Hillary Clinton, the designated Secretary of State, ought to be able to help clear those worries away. Her support for Israel is beyond doubt. In the primary with Obama she had condemned his readiness to negotiate with Iran as naïve.

Europe Can Help With New Initiatives

Europeans can also help with such a rapprochement. Through the "Group of Six" -- which consists of the US, Russia, China, France, Great Britain, and Germany -- they have already made offers of cooperation to Iran and have instituted a smarter system of sanctions. Admittedly, implementation has been incomplete so far. "Nevertheless, it's important for the Americans not to simply sideline these negotiations," Laurie Dundon, an ex-staffer for Madeleine Albright who now works at the Bertelsmann Foundation, told SPIEGEL ONLINE.

According to Dundon, Europe can help with new initiatives. For instance, with the project of an Israeli-Syrian rapprochement. Washington has been striving for this for some time. Condoleezza Rice has met with her Syrian counterparts. The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has travelled to Damascus. In the long run, US politicians hope that could to drive a wedge in the close relationship between Tehran and Damascus.

Maybe that's why Iran's power players seem to be all ears these days. After Obama's election victory, Ahmadinejad immediately sent him congratulations. Tehran will also convene a "special conference" to debate the triumph of the Democrats and its impact on relations between Tehran and Washington. The Iranian Foreign Ministry is making no secret of its wish for a fundamental change in the relationship -- and even points to Obama's election slogan, "Yes we can."