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The Mumbai Attacks

Evidence Points to Pakistan as Rice Seeks to Ease Tension

By Matthias Gebauer and Hasnain Kazim

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is in New Delhi on Wednesday in an attempt to ease tensions between India and Pakistan in the wake of last week's terror attacks on Mumbai. Indian officials say the evidence indicates that the terrorists came from Pakistan.

Condoleezza Rice's final trip to Europe as US Secretary of State this week could have been quite a pleasant one. A bit of piano with the Queen in London, some tea and pleasant conversation with her European counterparts. One can imagine less enjoyable trips.

Instead, though, the voyage over the Atlantic turned into an unwelcome challenge right at the end of her term in office. The terror attacks in Mumbai mean that Rice still has some work to do. On Wednesday, she arrived in the Indian capital New Delhi.

The goal of her trip, carefully coordinated with US President-elect Barack Obama's transition team, is clear: The US wants to do all it can to prevent a renewed escalation between the two atomic powers Pakistan and India. On Thursday, Rice plans to continue on to Islamabad to meet with Pakistani officials.

One can see just how thin the tightrope is that Rice will be walking by listening to her speak. She wants to do all she can to avoid angering the two sides. She has called on Pakistan to show "absolute" cooperation and requested "total transparency." She also said that "this is a time when everyone in the civilized world needs to unite." The comment was, no doubt, a message to both Islamabad and New Delhi.

The US attempts at mediation come at a time when many politicians in India are pointing their fingers squarely at Pakistan as they seek to assign blame for the attacks, which left 171 people dead and nearly 240 wounded during an assault that paralyzed Mumbai for three days. New details are emerging from the investigation on a daily basis, most coming from the interrogation of the one terrorist who survived the standoff, Ajmal Qasab. According to reports in the Indian media, citing Indian security officials, Qasab has proven willing to talk and has spoken at length about his terrorist training received at a camp in Pakistan -- from a militant from Chechnya.

More and more details seem to indicate that the attack may have been planned by the terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which has been active in Kashmir and is said to have connections with Pakistan's intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI. According to investigators, the attackers from Mumbai used the same explosive material used by the attackers in the 2001 assault on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi, which resulted in 10 deaths. Lashkar-e-Taiba was blamed for that attack.

Furthermore, according to the Indian Express, citing security officials, the grenades used in the Mumbai terror originated from the company Pakistan Ordnance Factories, located in northern Pakistan. Such weapons, however, are not difficult to obtain.

But for Indian investigators, intercepted cell phone conversations provide the strongest evidence for the involvement of Lashkar-e-Taiba. According to press reports, the so-called Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of the Indian intelligence services claims to have listened in on Sept. 18 as a Lashkar member spoke of an "operation targeting a hotel at the Gateway of India." The Gateway is just a few meters from the Taj Mahal Hotel, which was attacked during last week's wave of terror. In a Sept. 24 conversation, a number of hotels were mentioned by name, including the Taj Mahal.

On Nov. 19, RAW analysts listened in as someone said "we will reach Mumbai between 2100 and 2300 hours," though a date was not mentioned. Finally, on Nov. 26, one day before the terrorists attacked, a phone call was tapped in which "five SIM cards" for mobile telephones were ordered.

According to reports in both the Indian and US press, Indian officials see Yusuf Muzammil, one of the leaders of Lashkar-e-Taiba, as being behind the attacks. Attackers are alleged to have called him directly during the assault on two Mumbai luxury hotels. The suspect Qasab is also said to have mentioned Muzammil as being behind the operation. Muzammil is presumed to be in Pakistan.

Still, little in the way of solid evidence has been presented. And on the political level, the blame game between India and Pakistan is well underway. Even as Indian officials have publicly blamed Pakistan for not doing enough to prevent cross-border terror attacks, Pakistani President Asif Zardari said on CNN's "Larry King Live" that "the state of Pakistan is in no way responsible." He also cast doubt on Indian claims that Qasab is from Pakistan, saying "we have not been given any tangible proof to say that he is definitely a Pakistani. I very much doubt it, Larry, that he is a Pakistani."

The rules of the South Asian blame game have been hammered out in recent years: blame for whatever problem may arise is always to be found with the other. It is, indeed, a game which would be mildly amusing to watch if the two countries didn't also issue jarring threats as part of the exchange. The fact that both countries are armed with nuclear weapons provides the frightening backdrop.

Indeed, the threat of a nuclear escalation is in the back of everyone's mind these days, particularly given comments such as that from Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who said "every sovereign country has its right to protect its territorial integrity." He went on, saying "time will show" if a military strike will be necessary. High-level military commanders stressed on Tuesday that the military option remained on the table, according to a report in the Times of India.

Pakistan responded quickly, indicating that it might be forced to redeploy troops to the country's border with India -- meaning that there would be fewer soldiers available to patrol Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.

It was this scenario more than any other that got the attention of the US. Should Pakistan make good on its threat, it would not only mean a severe escalation of the conflict with India, but it would also result in a deterioration of the already sub-par security situation in Afghanistan, where NATO troops are fighting the Taliban. Indeed, the West has spent months demanding that Pakistan send more troops to the border region.

The deterioration in relations between the South Asian neighbors comes at a time when many had begun to feel a certain amount of optimism for the region. For years, the two powers have tried to reduce tension, and the rapprochement has been furthered by the active diplomatic participation of Washington.

Rice will no doubt attempt to sooth the situation during her visit. Indeed, observers anticipate that she will speak of both countries as being the victim of terrorism. It is not difficult to find proof for such a claim. In Pakistan, some 3,000 people have lost their lives as a result of terror attacks in 2008 alone. In India, the total is 2,000. Terror can only be stopped together, will be Rice's message.

Still, it will no doubt be a mission with a very modest aim. With the visions of last week's chaos in Mumbai still fresh in everybody's minds, the most Rice will be likely to achieve is a moderation of the tone between the two countries. And even that will be difficult enough -- hardly the kind of mission she had been hoping for during her final weeks in office.