By SPIEGEL Staff
The war is chaotic because it is asymmetrical. Hamas is not a recognized government, nor is the Gaza Strip a recognized state against which the state of Israel can wage a war. The Gaza Strip is a no-man's land of international relations, wedged between Egypt and Israel, under a blockade for the past three-and-a-half years and barely provided for by the UN. These are among the reasons why the coastal strip developed into a breeding ground for terrorists.
Hamas has fired more than 10,000 rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip in recent years. Most are projectiles known as Qassam rockets, many of which are welded together in backyard workshops in Gaza. The rockets, which cannot be guided, have killed 32 people in Israel since 2001. The attacks are worthless militarily, but they spread sheer terror. No other country in the world would accept similar treatment, especially not over many years, as the Israelis have.
Nevertheless, the war could also benefit Al-Qaida. In a 10-minute audio tape released last Tuesday, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second-in-command in Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, called for bloody revenge. In the second part of his address, Zawahiri appealed to his fellow Egyptians to topple President Mubarak. Mubarak has been surprising open to assuming the role of peace broker, and as a result has made many enemies in the Islamic world.
But the real winner of the war in Gaza could be Iran, once again. With Israel facing sharp criticism from the global public and the United States transitioning from one president to the next, this could not be a better time for the mullahs and their nuclear program. According to Mustafa Alani, a researcher with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai, the leadership in Tehran benefits from an upsurge in extremism.
The ease with which Iran has managed to bridge the schism between Sunnis and Shiites, as well as Tehran's pragmatic approach to supplying the Shiite Hezbollah with weapons and the Sunni Hamas with funds, is deeply disconcerting to statesmen like Egypt's Mubarak, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal and the rulers of the Gulf states.
For many reasons, it was imperative for the West to react quickly. But its envoys and politicians are trying to make their way through a diplomatic minefield. The Israeli government refuses to negotiate with Hamas, fearing that such negotiation would lend legitimacy to the organization. Hamas only represents the Palestinians in Gaza. The Fatah movement, headed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is in power in the West Bank. The two organizations are hostile to each other, and Hamas probably took advantage of the war to shoot Fatah supporters in Gaza. Even the Hamas leadership appears to be divided, with moderates arguing for negotiation and radicals interested in nothing but shooting Israelis.
Powerful players also have their hands in the game. Iran funds Hamas to strike at Israel. Israel attacks Hamas, partly to deter Hezbollah in the north. Egypt wants to seal Hamas into the Gaza Strip to prevent it from cooperating even more closely with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
Various parties ventured into the fray last week. A delegation of several Arab foreign ministers went to New York to press the UN to pass a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire. Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, was permitted to deliver a speech to the plenary session. The Libyans had presented their proposal on the preceding weekend. Many unusual middlemen had become involved.
Presidents Sarkozy and Mubarak were the fastest and the most thorough of the group, and most have now gathered behind their plan. Its key points include a cease-fire agreement under which Hamas would agree to completely stop firing rockets at Israel. In return, Israel could open up the borders to Gaza, both in the north and the south. At the same time, steps would have to be taken to ensure that the Palestinians are unable to smuggle new weapons into the territory.
Two Israeli envoys flew to Egypt last week to discuss the plan with Mubarak's intelligence chief. Hamas representatives were also there -- but didn't meet the Israelis directly, of course. For the Israelis, the plan is a beginning, just as it is for moderate members of Hamas.
Only the United States, the key power in the Middle East, kept itself largely out of the fray. In the final days of his administration, President George W. Bush no longer has the latitude to act freely, and President-elect Barack Obama cannot act until after his inauguration. But the next president has already promised to become "effectively and consistently" involved in the peace process, and says that he will have "plenty to say" about it after he takes office on Jan. 20. His designated secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, has already chosen the experienced personnel with which she expects to guarantee America's comeback in the Middle East.
But Obama's course cannot be simply another attempt, using diplomatic means, to force Israel and its neighbors to sign peace treaties. Even though their choices of political tools could not have been more dissimilar -- Bill Clinton, the man of diplomacy, versus Bush, the man of war in Iraq -- both of Obama's predecessors subscribed to an illusion. They believed that they could change the entire region to their advantage, shaping it according to America's will and ideas.
Many of Clinton's Middle East experts will also be working for Obama, and most have become more able over the years. They recommend exercising modesty, and they recommend a Middle East policy that, as Clinton's former Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk puts it, is "less naïve."
Lifelines for Hamas
American specialists are already working behind the scenes to try to resolve one of the main problems in the conflict. Early last year, two experts from Washington traveled to the so-called Philadelphi corridor, the 14-kilometer (9-mile) border between Gaza and Egypt.
Near Rafah, they saw something that sparked much concern among the Israelis. An army of Palestinians was building new tunnels every week beneath the closed border. Many are large enough to serve as conduits for livestock, equipment and weapons. The tunnels are lifelines for Hamas, which uses them to replenish its arms supplies. They also provide a source of income for its fighters, who charge fees on the private movement of goods.
Many of the tunnel openings were concealed in houses, but some were relatively open, covered only by plastic tents -- until last week, when the Israelis bombarded the underground network. Of course, such tunnels can be quickly excavated again.
There are three ways to prevent this from happening, the two American experts wrote in their report. First, the Israelis could dig and flood a large channel to the Mediterranean along the border. Second, they could drive stakes deep into the ground -- although the tunnel builders are already digging at depths of more than 10 meters (33 feet) below the ground.
A third possibility would be for the US Army Corps of Engineers to build an electronic system for the Egyptians that would detect every movement beneath the earth. Around a dozen of the Corp's personnel, dressed as civilians, are already in Egypt for precisely that purpose.
But how is the border at Rafah to be controlled in the future if it is opened up? German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier sent his Middle East envoy Andreas Michaelis to the region last week. Michaelis traveled to Cairo via Jerusalem, Ramallah and Amman. After arriving in Cairo, he developed a model with which the Germans could help the Egyptians stop the flow of smugglers in rural areas, which involves the Germans providing advice, training and equipment. On Friday evening, Steinmeier left for the Middle East to personally submit the proposal to the Egyptians.
But the proposal does not specify who would monitor the border itself. The Egyptians are lukewarm about the job. UN peacekeepers are an option. The Turks, among others, have offered to take on the role. The official Palestinian government -- in other words, Fatah -- could and wants to be involved, so that Gaza is not guarded merely by outside troops. But for that -- or any serious plan -- to happen, the conflict between Fatah and Hamas would have to be resolved.
An idea is taking shape among Arab diplomats in the Gulf states to resolve the problem, inspired by the example of South Africa and Nelson Mandela.
Marwan Barghouti has been in an Israeli prison for six years. Both sides have enough faith in the ability of Barghouti, who was once seen as a likely successor to Yasser Arafat but later became a critic of the Palestinian leader, to help the Palestinians move away from the fatal split between Hamas and Fatah.
In 2004, an Israeli court convicted Barghouti, one of the leaders of the pro-Fatah Tanzim militia, of murdering civilians and sentenced him to five consecutive life terms and 40 years' imprisonment. But Barghouti is considered the last common hero for the whole Palestinian nation. He had a falling-out with Fatah's old guard because he considered them to be corrupt. And unlike other Fatah members, who fundamentally reject Hamas, he and a group of his supporters wrote a national reconciliation document which is seen as the foundation for a future government. Barghouti, say Arab diplomats in the Gulf, is the only Fatah member believed capable of including Hamas in a Palestinian peace.
The moderate Arab countries, Israel and the United States still support Palestinian President Abbas, but experts see this as a waste of time, noting that Abbas is too old, too weak and too deeply at odds with Hamas. Hence, they say, it is only a matter of time before Israel finally does what President Shimon Peres has already announced he plans to do, namely to pardon Barghouti when the time is right.
Perhaps that time has now come, or perhaps this is merely another useless mental exercise, another illusion in the history of the Middle East, a history rich in disillusionment. At any rate, the war in Gaza must first come to an end before even more people die and even more hatred is fueled, which will only generate more violence.
RALF BESTE, CLEMENS HÖGES, HANS HOYNG, JULIANE VON MITTELSTAEDT, BRITTA SANDBERG, CHRISTOPH SCHULT, BERNHARD ZAND
Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan.
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