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From 'Change' to 'Be Patient'

Global Crises Will Define Obama's Presidency

By Cordula Meyer, Gregor Peter Schmitz and Gabor Steingart in Washington

As president, Barack Obama must now translate his lofty words into concrete action. The economy is sliding deeper into crisis, the Middle East is increasingly unstable and the Republicans are waiting for his first mistakes.

Inauguration Day is a momentous occasion in the life of a new United States president. Since the days of George Washington, tradition has it that the man of the hour appears in festive attire to set the tone for a term of office filled with high ambitions. For a brief moment, politics are transformed into poetry.

Over the years, new presidents have been competing with each other to coin the historic phrases that will remain engraved in the collective consciousness of the nation. John F. Kennedy became immortal during his 1961 inaugural address when he called on Americans, saying: "Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."

In 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt, the president who later led America through most of World War II, went down in history with a sentence that very likely stems from someone else: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

On Tuesday, the 44th president will stand at the same spot on Capitol Hill. People across America already have a glint in their eyes in anticipation, and speechwriters have been working round the clock to polish those eloquent words. Americans expect a festival of harmony that will help them forget the bitter years of the 43rd president.

Now, finally, America believes that it has found the right man for the job. The expectations on election day were high -- and they have now risen even higher. On the domestic front, Obama is expected to overcome the financial crisis, stem the rising tide of unemployment, reduce social inequality and achieve nothing less than raising the country to new heights of greatness. "Obama became president so our children can fly," reads one message prominently displayed in a Washington sporting goods store.

On the foreign policy front, the wish list of the international community has grown even longer over the past eight years with every single disappointment with George W. Bush. Obama is expected to achieve peace in the Middle East, prevent Iran from building the bomb without resorting to bombing the country, integrate the Chinese into the world community, tame the Russians, unite the Europeans and -- in his spare time -- also achieve reconciliation with communist Cuba.

But when the crowds of curious onlookers have left the city and the viewing stands in front of the White House has been dismantled, a new, harsher reality will settle in. Over the coming weeks, America will experience the end of poetry -- and the return of politics.

'Horrendous Times'

After an election campaign full of promises, Obama has already begun to water down some of his pledges. Health care reform is no longer so urgent. We simply cannot afford it, says the Obama team. Taxes for the rich should be increased -- but not now, not during the crisis. "All campaign promises are still valid," says David Axelrod, the architect of Obama's election campaign, who will join him in the White House, "but we have to set priorities."

What's more, Obama is coming through on his promises of bipartisanship. He has integrated his Republican opponents and their positions to such a degree that it makes his left-wing supporters' heads spin. The catchword of the election campaign was "change." The new message to his followers is: "Be patient."

And Americans have been patient with Obama. The more liberal Democrats may be muttering, but they do so quietly.

Obama's new pragmatism is well-founded. No president since the 1930s has faced problems as serious as those Obama must address. "Nothing will be easy," Obama told Americans last Friday in Ohio, "because the extent of the challenges that we face is so enormous." The economic situation is becoming increasingly gloomy. The measures taken to combat the financial crisis have not yet worked. Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman predicts "horrendous times" for the country.

The flow of credit has slowed to a virtual standstill, Detroit -- the car capital of the nation -- is going under, consumer confidence continues to fall, and a wave of bankruptcies sweeping the retail trade will force roughly a quarter of all stores to close their doors by the end of the year.

Obama's economic advisers aren't even trying to play down the gravity of the current economic and social situation. By the year 2010, an additional 5 million jobs will be lost, they wrote in a 14-page paper prepared under the direction of Christina Romer, the head of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.

An Extremely Difficult Opponent

The dismal predictions are directed at two target groups. First, Americans will have to brace themselves for difficult times. Second, from his very first day at work in the Oval Office, Obama will have to defeat an opponent who has made life extremely difficult for previous presidents: Many self-confident members of Congress, who see themselves as a counterweight to the president, are not about to simply wave through his economic stimulus package worth $800 billion (€610 billion). When Democratic Representative Barney Frank -- the influential chairman of the House Financial Services Committee -- was asked about Obama's plan, he preferred to quote Lenin: "Trust is good, but control is better."

Obama had hoped that his economy-boosting package would be approved by Congress even before his inauguration and that he would find it ready for his signature on his desk in the Oval Office. But that won't happen. A bitter struggle over every detail of the plan has begun. The package is too large for the conservatives, and too small for the liberals.