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  From 'Change' to 'Be Patient': Global Crises Will Define Obama's Presidency

From 'Change' to 'Be Patient' Global Crises Will Define Obama's Presidency

By Cordula Meyer, Gregor Peter Schmitz and Gabor Steingart in Washington

Part 2: Guantanamo, Afghanistan and Lingering Worries of Terror

And as if the economic concerns were not enough, the fear of a new terrorist attack and the issue of national security still remain. The trauma of the attacks of 9/11 has been displaced, but not overcome, by the economic crisis. The new government is also steering a middle course here. With Bush's Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and retired four-star general James Jones as National Security Adviser, the Obama team is making a visible effort to achieve bipartisan cooperation.

Occasionally, the new times sound like the old ones. "All options remain on the table," was Bush's answer when once asked how he intended to deal with Iran. "All options remain on the table," said future Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last Tuesday at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Obama has also slowed the pace on the issue of Guantanamo, the ugliest symbol of the Bush era. He still intends to close the camp, but significantly later than what he promised during the election campaign.

It is Obama's foreign policy, however, that suffers the most from the ruinous presidency of his predecessor. The Bush legacy, writes New York Times Washington bureau chief David E. Sanger in his latest book, goes far beyond 5,000 American troops killed in action, tens of thousands of dead Iraqis and Afghans, and $800 billion in war expenses: "We have missed opportunities and lost credibility."

Obama now has to win the military conflicts that Bush instigated. Up to 30,000 additional soldiers are expected to be deployed in Afghanistan as soon as they are withdrawn from Iraq. This troop increase aims to buy time for the big new strategy, the "comprehensive approach" that Obama's advisers have been talking about for so long.

Obama's team will continue to rely on the military, but no longer exclusively. They intend to bolster the economy and the government of Afghanistan with the help of the Europeans. Moderate Taliban are to be drawn out of the alliance against the West. General David Petraeus -- who has proven his abilities as the chief commander in Iraq -- will reportedly lead this operation.

Germany will be needed to help with reconstruction. But there will probably be less pressure on the Germans to engage in combat operations in southern Afghanistan. Washington assumes that it has little chance of gaining support for this in Berlin. The new motto is: "Everyone should contribute what they can."

The Obama Administration's Greatest Challenge

But the true test for Obama awaits him in Tehran. "There is no greater foreign policy challenge for the Obama administration," says Dennis Ross, who was the special Middle East Coordinator under former President Bill Clinton and has now been appointed Obama's special envoy to Iran.

Obama and Secretary of State Clinton also want to launch a large-scale diplomatic offensive here, in addition to maintaining the threat of military force. Thomas Pickering, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, has outlined the possible components. This could include Washington's renouncing the idea of overthrowing the regime in Iran, integrating Tehran into a regional security architecture and offering extensive economic cooperation agreements.

Even a dialogue with Hamas would be conceivable under certain conditions in order to defuse the overall situation in the Middle East over the long term. A remark made by future Secretary of State Clinton concerning the suffering of civilians in Gaza was interpreted by many observers as an indication that the US intends to exert more control over its closest allies in the Middle East. Obama does not want to put the special relationship with Israel at risk, but at the same time, he intends to show that he takes the interests of the Arabs seriously. "It could be that by this spring US diplomats will once again be stationed in Damascus," says Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. However, Syrian President Bashar Assad says he wants to wait and see if the greater cooperation that has been announced actually materializes.

After losing considerable clout during the Bush era, the superpower now appears prepared to make incredible concessions. In order to achieve the major objective of preventing Iran from building the bomb, the American wish list is being trimmed from top to bottom. At the NATO summit in Strasbourg in early April, the objective of eastward expansion and the construction of a missile defense shield are expected to be postponed indefinitely.

A new era also appears to be dawning in the area of climate protection. Bush's policies consistently ignored the issue, causing the US to deny the existence of global warming and boycott international environmental agreements. Obama now wants to press ahead with the "green revolution" that Nobel Prize winner Al Gore has advocated for so many years. This coming December at the Copenhagen Climate Summit, the new president would like to sign a global agreement.

A Battered Republican Party Waits in the Wings

Hardly anyone speaks of the Republican Party these days, but it still exists. Although Bush is departing, his party lives on -- even if it is somewhat bruised, battered and splintered.

The Republicans are still arguing over who caused them to lose the White House. The majority believes that their candidate John McCain wasn't conservative enough. At the same time, the Bush legacy doesn't enjoy a good reputation anymore -- even among friends of the party. "We have to disassociate ourselves from Bush's failed policies and return to our core values," said conservative lobbyist Grover Norquist, president of the anti-tax lobbying group Americans for Tax Reform.

But the demoralized conservatives are holding back with their criticism of Obama, at least for the time being. Even Republican icon Newt Gingrich says "the country is tired of the political attacks of the Republicans." A blockade approach would therefore be "ineffective."

This opinion is also shared by the man who loves harsh attacks more than anyone else: Karl Rove. The architect of Bush's election victories, who is notorious for his smear campaigns, has advised his troops to knuckle under and "avoid mindless opposition."

So, in the meantime, even the Republicans are doing what the rest of the world is doing -- waiting and hoping.

Translated from the German by Paul Cohen.

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