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Obama's New Lesson in Politics

Russians Launch Charm Offensive

By Moritz Gathmann in Moscow

Will the US forego its defense shield in Eastern Europe just to keep Russian missiles out of Kaliningrad? For the time being, the new Cold War between Washington and Moscow appears to have been averted. There is even talk that Russia might allow the US to use its territory to deliver supplies to troops in Afghanistan.

Barack Obama hadn't even been in office for a week when Europe's great hopes for the new American president began materializing. The first signs from Washington suggest that the era of unilateralism practiced by the Bush Administration is over. America wants to go back to working together with other countries in the world -- even Russia.

Under George W. Bush, Russian-American relations slowly deteriorated. The most serious dispute between the two countries originated from US plans to operate an anti-missile defense system with installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. American officials protested that the system was necessary for defense against Iranian attacks, but the Russians felt threatened. Then, when Russian tanks rolled towards Georgia last summer, former Soviet satellite states grew fearful of their Russian big brother. Within only a few days, Poland and the Czech Republic signed a contract with the United States to station the missile defense system.

Georgia and Ukraine were two further points of contention between Washington and Moscow. Bush wanted to make both countries NATO members, but ex-president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin fought vociferously against a development he felt would leave his country encircled by a Western military alliance.

Missiles after the election

On the day after Obama was elected president in November, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced his country's intention to station Iskander short-range ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave situated between Lithuania and Poland that is only 600 kilometers (373 miles) away from Berlin. Medvedev, however, said the missiles would only be deployed if the Americans didn't change their plans.

Many observers felt the move was tactical, and they were right. Russia clearly intended the missiles as a further bargaining chip for negotiations with the new US administration. On Wednesday, a high-ranking Russian military official told the government-friendly news agency Interfax: "The realization of these plans has been suspended." Even if other Russian military officials have qualified the statement, it could be that the missile defense tug-of-war which also crippled Russian-American cooperation in other areas in recent years, will soon be over.

This presumption appears to be corroborated by the most recent assertions made by Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter and recently advised Obama on foreign policy during the campaign. In an interview with a Polish radio station on Monday, Brzezinski conceded that Congress is skeptical when it comes to the issue of missile defense. "I'm not sure, given the current circumstances of the financial crisis, whether this expensive project can get funding," he said. The United States and Russia are, after all, both preoccupied with fighting the economic crisis and need to rethink their planned military expenditures.

Even before it appeared that a Russian-American horse-trade might take shape in the near future, the media in Moscow had already begun speculating about what it might bring. They predicted that Obama would sacrifice the missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland and perhaps even abandon US support for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. In exchange, Moscow could permit the Americans to use Russian territory in their efforts to supply US troops in Afghanistan -- possibly even military goods at some point in the future.

Obama's New Priorities

Obama began setting new priorities during his election campaign and fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan was at the top of his list. Part of his plan to turn the war around is to station 30,000 additional troops in the country. But Americans have had serious problems supplying the troops already there because their main transport routes through Pakistan have become increasingly dangerous and unreliable. In December, for example, Pakistani truck drivers staged a strike, bringing supply deliveries to a standstill. This is where Russia comes into the picture.

Last year, Putin signed a contract with both France and Germany that allows these countries to transport goods across Russia and into Afghanistan.

Speaking in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, on Friday, Jan. 23, Russian President Medvedev said his country was prepared to cooperate with the US in helping to find new routes with which it could deliver non-military supplies to its troops. Medvedev also set the conditions for that to happen, calling for "fully fledged and equal cooperation." Russia wants to be part of the discussion on issues relating to its neighboring countries and it wants to have equal footing with the United States on those questions.

Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the upper house of Russian parliament, went even further, saying he would not exclude the possibility of allowing US military goods to traverse Russian territory.

Every signal the Obama administration has sent during the week about its role on the international stage has been that it will pursue pragmatic policies. Obama appears to be trying to solve future problems while at the same time freeing himself from the burdens of the Bush era. But if it actually comes to a compromise with Russia, he must answer one question: How will the US protect itself from Iran if it foregoes the missile defence system?

Russia still has its Putin Plan of 2007 to offer: Back then, the Russian president suggested that the Americans and Russians could share a radar station in Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran.

It would be overly optimistic to imagine the possibilty of the US and Russia united peacefully under a shared missile defense system any time soon. On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Russian Air Force announced that two TU-195 long-distance bombers had completed a patrol flight over the Arctic Ocean near Alaska.

The United States air force sent along four F-15 fighter jets to accompany them.