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  Essay by Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder: The Way Forward in Afghanistan

Essay by Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder The Way Forward in Afghanistan

By Gerhard Schröder

Part 2: A Timeframe Must Be Set for Troop Withdrawal

First, the military presence remains the prerequisite for reconstruction in Afghanistan. This presence must even be strengthened in the short term to improve the security situation. For this reason, both raising the upper limit for the German ISAF mandate from 3,500 to 4,500 soldiers and the new US administration's announcement of its plans to add more troops are correct. However, a uniform NATO plan is also needed.

We need a blunt analysis within the NATO alliance on why efforts to pacify southern Afghanistan have failed. I am convinced that the Bundeswehr's concept, which tends to be militarily conservative and is considerate of the population and civilian facilities, will be more successful in the long run. The disparity between these different strategies in the north and south is a problem, and it also represents a failure on the part of the NATO secretary general. As long as these strategies are not coordinated within NATO, one can only warn against a deployment of the Bundeswehr in southern Afghanistan. Moreover, domestic forces will have to be capable of guaranteeing security in Afghanistan within the foreseeable future, which means that the training of domestic police and military personnel needs to be expedited.

Second, the conflicts in the Middle East threaten our global security, but especially security and peace in Europe, because they are playing out in our immediate neighborhood. Aside from Afghanistan, this is primarily applicable to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the situation in Iraq and the dispute over the Iranian nuclear program. None of these conflicts can be viewed in isolation. To resolve them, we need a regional dialogue that includes countries like Syria and Iran, as well as the responsible-minded Gulf states.

Even in an increasingly multipolar world, the United States is and remains the determining factor in the Middle East. With the election of President Obama comes the chance of a paradigm shift occurring in American foreign policy, one that focuses more heavily, though not solely, on dialogue and communication instead of military actions. This opportunity must be taken advantage of, both for the aforementioned conflicts and Afghanistan. We need a regional conference that includes Afghanistan's neighbors, the Central Asian countries and China, Iran and Pakistan.

Russia also has a fundamental interest in a stable Afghanistan and has proven to be cooperative when it comes to NATO concerns such as the safe transport of materiel across Russian territory to Afghanistan. A successful regional plan must also include stabilizing a disintegrating Pakistan, conducting the domestic dialogue in Afghanistan with all relevant forces and continuing the process of reconciliation.

Third, civilian reconstruction efforts must be reinforced. The nations attending the Paris Conference on Afghanistan pledged $20 billion (€15.3 billion) in aid. But instead of simply being promised, these funds must begin to flow, despite the international financial crisis.

Even more than before, it is important to strengthen Afghan self-reliance, especially when it comes to the development of administrative structures, the judiciary, the police and infrastructure. And the Afghan government must agree to ensure that funds are funneled, without corruption, to the places where they are truly needed. However, I am very skeptical that is still possible under the leadership of current Afghan President Hamid Karzai. A political fresh start would be desirable in Afghanistan.

Fourth, responsibility for the country must be turned over to the Afghans. This requires both international assistance and, above all, the will of the Afghans themselves. The Afghan leadership is deficient in this regard. Too often those in Kabul have relied on international donors to make things right. I believe that the time has come, more than seven years after the overthrow of the Taliban, to establish a timeframe for the transition to self-reliance, which would be tied to the beginnings of international troop withdrawal. Only if this timeframe exists will the Afghan leadership become increasingly motivated to create the necessary conditions.

This was the goal in November 2001, when we began the "Petersberg process" under the guidance of then Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. The process led to an Afghanistan agreement in 2006. On the basis of this agreement, the Afghans gave themselves until 2013 to independently guarantee security, good governance, the rule of law and economic and social development. This temporal horizon is certainly very optimistic.

But with concentrated and intensified international commitment, it would be possible to create the conditions, within the next 10 years, so that responsibility is gradually returned to the Afghan authorities and security forces. This would pave the way for withdrawing the international troops.

The international community now has a new opportunity to achieve the goal of stabilizing and rebuilding Afghanistan. We must take advantage of it collectively and decisively.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan