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'North Korea Doesn't Hold All the Cards'

North Korea's detonation of a nuclear bomb on Monday has the world wondering how to respond. So far, talk has been tough, but though some German commentators say the road to Pyongyang goes through Beijing, others want to see China left behind.

First came the bomb. And on Tuesday, just one day after North Korea challenged the world by testing an atomic weapon for the second time since 2006, came the missiles. Early on Tuesday morning, the isolated communist country led by the idiosyncratic Kim Jong Il fired off two short-range missiles from the country's east coast, according to the South Korean news agency Yonhap, which cited South Korean government officials.

The missile test comes despite the global outcry following Monday's nuclear test, which packed a punch slightly larger than the 2006 explosion, though seismic analysis is ongoing. The condemnation of North Korea was virtually unanimous, with the United Nations Security Council issuing a statement saying the test was a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution. The council is set to meet again on Tuesday to begin the process of formulating a further resolution.

Given the responses from the international community on Monday, the process could be a rapid one. Russia, which holds a permanent veto on the council, said "the reaction must be sufficiently serious because the authority of the Security Council is at stake." China, also a permanent council member, reiterated that it is "resolutely opposed" to the test, though analysts doubt that Beijing, long one of North Korea's only allies, will back tough measures.

That, though, is what much of the world is calling for. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she hopes for a "signal of unity" in the response to North Korea, adding that the atomic bomb test "should, of course, be absolutely condemned." British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the tests were "erroneous, misguided and a danger to the world." The European Union voiced strong condemnation, both in the form of a statement issued by the bloc's foreign ministers, many of whom are in Hanoi, Vietnam for a gathering of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) and from EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Speaking of the tests, he said: "We consider it a provocation and we strongly condemn them."

Many analysts, though, think the test might be a message to US President Barack Obama. His initial response was clear. He said the tests were a "matter of grave concern to all nations." He went on, saying "North Korea is directly and recklessly challenging the international community. North Korea's behavior increases tensions and undermines stability in northeast Asia."

In 2007, North Korea agreed to scrap its nuclear program as part of the so-called "six party talks" including the US, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and North Korea. Recently, though, Pyongyang has been turning up the rhetoric. Some say that domestic political considerations may be behind the renewed belligerence. Kim Jong Il's age and ailing health may be opening the way for a potential struggle among pretenders to the North Korean throne.

In explaining its test, Pyongyang said "the current US administration is following in the footsteps of the previous Bush administration's reckless policy of militarily stifling North Korea."

German commentators on Tuesday scratched their heads about what should be done.

The center-left daily Süddeutsche Zeitung on Tuesday writes:

"Of course the debate will continue as to the nuclear threat posed by North Korea. Was the second test really as successful as Pyongyang claims? Does North Korea already have the capability to install a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile and fire it at a target many thousands of kilometers away? These are legitimate questions. But the fact can't be ignored that this second test was a qualitative step forward for the North Korean bomb makers. Even a primitive atomic weapon in the hands of dictator Kim Jong Il represents a grave danger. And the danger of international proliferation of nuclear material remains large in the absence of negotiations."

"But North Korea doesn't hold all the cards. There are ways to influence the regime, especially given that nuclear deterrence isn't the country's sole political aim. Pyongyang wants direct, bilateral negotiations with the US. The country doesn't want to be completely dependent on China, a country North Korea mistrusts almost as much as it does the US. This is an opportunity that US President Barack Obama should take advantage of."

"Obama and his security team should now ask themselves whether their North Korea strategy might be more successful without China. A policy of containment in coordination with Japan and South Korea, coupled with direct negotiations with Pyongyang, could represent a promising alternative to the current course."

The conservative paper Die Welt writes:

"Kim Jong Il's message to Washington was clear: Should Barack Obama not extend his hand to North Korea as he has to so many other countries, he won't be blessed with diplomatic success in that part of the world. Obama, though, cannot accept that, which is why, no matter how conciliatory the US has been with North Korea, a preventative military strike is no longer such a far-fetched eventuality should Pyongyang continue its policy of confrontation."

"But Kim Jong Il's demonstration of power may very well be meant first and foremost for domestic consumption. Under such a scenario, the atomic test is meant to prevent the power trinity of the Kim family, the military and the party from becoming imbalanced. Just as the 67-year-old Kim Jong Il inherited power from his father Kim Il Sung in 1994, he now wants to pass the torch on to his youngest son, 25-year-old Kim Jong Un. Pushing that through against all opposition is likely his last great goal in life. Flexing military muscles certainly doesn't hurt, even at the price of total isolation."

Left-leaning daily Die Tageszeitung writes:

"The atomic test is a test for Obama: Is he really committed to finding political solutions? Is he serious about his desire to rid the world of nuclear weapons? Or is he following an aggressive American policy which has seen the US threaten North Korea with atomic weapons of its own?"

"The irony is that Kim's country is so isolated that he has to find ever-more blatant ways to attract attention to himself. The only thing North Korea has left to negotiate with is its atomic weapons program. Because Kim has nothing else, he isn't likely to give that up. That is the dilemma and therein lies the danger that North Korea presents to the world…. But what should the international community do? Strengthening the already useless sanctions would just be counterproductive and it would not be in the interest of North Korea's neighbors, which fear the country's collapse just as much as they do the country's weapons."

The Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"With Monday's test, North Korea's dictator Kim Jong Il has not just provoked its ideological archenemy the US and its new president, Barack Obama. China too, North Korea's final remaining ally, should feel snubbed. For China, which has tried to convince its trouble-making neighbor to give up its atomic weapons program, the test is a slap in the face."

"Indeed, that is the only aspect of Pyongyang's nuclear test that could give cause for hope: Even the Chinese have to increasingly ask themselves whether the North Koreans, which provide a geographical buffer to South Korea and the US soldiers stationed there, can continue to be given the free rein they have always had."

"If Beijing realizes that Pyongyang no longer listens to Chinese requests, then that is even more valuable than a resumption of the six-party talks. Because in contrast to the West, China still has levers to exert pressure on North Korea: China is by far the country's most important trading partner and without its ideological and material support, North Korea would have long since sunken into chaos."

-- Charles Hawley, 12:30 p.m. CET