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06/01/2010

But what is the North Korean ruler, who likes his subjects to pay homage to him as the "Sun of the 21st Century," trying to achieve? Was his regime seeking to start a "holy war" by sinking the Cheonan, as Pyongyang threatened when the south fired on a North Korean warship last November? Or -- and there is some evidence to support this theory -- is Kim, who is poor health, trying to get the US's attention, so as to extort Washington into giving him economic aid and political recognition?

Kim, who reportedly intends to anoint his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as the heir to the throne soon, is under pressure to offer his subjects the prospect of better conditions, after promising them prosperity by 2012, the 100th birthday of his father, the nation's late founder Kim Il-sung. But Kim Jong-il antagonized his country's small middle class with his failed currency reform last year, when he forced them to convert their assets into the new won at a ratio of one to 100. He reportedly had his chief of planning and the economy, who was blamed for the ensuing chaos, the supply bottlenecks and the unusual protests by his subjects, executed by firing squad.

But this time, with the attack on the Cheonan, the North Korean regime appears to have overplayed its risky survival tactics of threats and extortion. Unlike his liberal predecessors, South Korean President Lee won't be intimidated. The former Hyundai executive is a hardliner who insists, among other things, that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear program.

International Support

In addition, the man in the Blue House, as the presidential palace in Seoul is known, has secured international support for his plan to isolate the north. Only after a thorough inspection of the wreckage of the Cheonan, for which the South Korean government brought in 24 military experts from the United States, Great Britain, Australia and Sweden, did Lee blame North Korea for the attack.

The investigative commission's central piece of evidence was a piece of a torpedo engine found at the site of the accident. The marking "No. 1" was found on the inside of the engine -- a typical label reportedly found on North Korean torpedoes in the past.

Now the UN office in Seoul is also interested in the commission's expert report. The UN, which came to the aid of the south in a US-led effort when the Korean War erupted in 1950, wants to examine whether North Korea violated the 1953 ceasefire agreement with its torpedo attack. From the American perspective, the advantage of this approach is that the government of US President Barack Obama will not have to negotiate directly with Kim over the sinking of the Cheonan.

The critical situation on the Korean peninsula also weighed heavily on a US-Chinese strategy meeting in Beijing last week. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had traveled to the Chinese capital to secure China's support for tougher sanctions against Iran. But now the two powers must also find ways to prevent a new war between their respective Korean allies, a collision that could reignite the geopolitical conflict of interest between Beijing and Washington in Korea.

'We Are in a Dilemma'

Beijing wants to prevent the Americans from taking advantage of the new Korean crisis to regain a stronger foothold in the region, particularly now that Obama has assured the south his "unconditional support" in its conflict with North Korea. At the same time, the government in Washington could place North Korea back on its list of countries that support terrorism. Moreover, Beijing fears that Japan and South Korea could eventually follow in Kim Jong-il's footsteps and acquire nuclear weapons.

For the Americans, however, the tensions in the region are not entirely inopportune. For months, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama had urged the Western superpower to close a US base on the island of Okinawa. But after the Korean crisis erupted, the Japanese prime minister had no alternative but to meekly drop his demands. He "sincerely" apologized to the residents of Okinawa and told them that they would have to continue to put up with US troops in the future.

America's presence in the region probably also explains why China has not even considered clearly condemning its ally North Korea for the attack on the Cheonan. Last Wednesday, Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun explained that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao planned to hold "strategic consultations" during an official visit to Seoul, but the official had no response to the core issue of how China could convince its ally to come to its senses.

"We are in a dilemma. Our role on the Korean peninsula is limited, and so are our options," explained a high-ranking Korea expert in Beijing. On the one hand, China does not want to alienate South Korea, an important trading partner, while on the other hand, Beijing's communists want to remain ideologically faithful to North Korea. Former Chinese leader Mao Zedong sacrificed about a million soldiers in the Korean War, including his own son. This is something Mao's heirs cannot forget.

Concerns about Stability

Furthermore, Beijing is concerned about stability within its own realm. A new war could drive hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees into China, which shares a 1,400-kilometer (875-mile) border with North Korea. And if the Kim dynasty collapsed, American troops could advance to the Yalu and Tumen rivers -- a horrific prospect for Beijing. Generals in the People's Liberation Army are reportedly already thinking of declaring North Korea a Chinese protectorate in the event of a crisis -- and marching into the country themselves.

The only people who have remained relatively unimpressed by the exaggerated propaganda efforts of the two nations are the people living on either side of the 38th parallel. Last week, they simply went about their daily business. In Pyongyang, Kim's subjects practiced for the Arirang mass festival, while female soldiers conducted drills for military parades planned for the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers Party.

Calm also prevailed on the south side of the demarcation line. On a sunny, idyllic day last week, things were very quiet at the Dorasan train station on the border, built years ago in the hope of reconciliation. A sign at the station indicates future destinations: Seoul in one direction and Pyongyang in the other. But there were no passengers to be seen. A soldier wearing a steel helmet stood guard, barring access to the platforms.

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• Part 1: Korean Crisis Puts China in a Quandry
• Part 2: What Is Kim Jong-Il Trying to Achieve?