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09/02/2010

The talks in Oslo and Camp David failed in part because expectations were too high, and that's why low expectations this time around aren't necessarily a bad thing. The advantage is that any small successes in negotiations can be celebrated as a victory. The disadvantage, though, is that a lack of trust influences the thinking of the negotiators. Why would Abbas want to go down in history as the man who betrayed the refugees' right of return if he already knows that Netanyahu isn't interested in a deal anyway? And why should Netanyahu clear settlements if he has reason to fear that rockets might be fired at Tel Aviv afterwards?

Neither side is seriously prepared for painful compromises on the major issues: the return of refugees, the administration of Jerusalem, the future of the settlements and a mutual recognition of a Jewish Israel and a Palestinian state. Many key points are still in dispute and hardly seem resolvable under the current situation. This is also partially attributable to the differences between the protagonists, Netanyahu and Abbas, which are greater than those between their predecessors. It's true there are small signals of a willingness to compromise, but they come from Netanyahu's rival in the government, Ehud Barak, rather than from the prime minister himself. Within the scope of a peace treaty, Israel is prepared to cede parts of Jerusalem to the Palestinians, the defense minister said in an interview published Wednesday in Haaretz. For his part, Netanyahu has so far categorically rejected a division of the city.

What is clear is that not a single one of the major problems will be put on the agenda this week in Washington. The bilateral meeting, the dinner with Obama and Hillary Clinton's festive opening of the peace talks are tantamount to a diplomatic drum roll. The greater the international attention, the greater the pressure will be on Netanyahu and Abbas. The most concrete result expected from this major Mideast summit may only be a timeline for negotiations, which is supposed to be addressed in working groups on Thursday.

In the end it will be the Americans who set the tone. Are Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton committed enough to push, motivate, apply pressure to both sides or even play hardball if they must? That, ultimately, is what will determine the success or failure of these talks.

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• Part 1: Do Peace Talks in Washington Stand a Chance of Success?
• Part 2: Will Benjamin Netanyahu Even Negotiate at All?
• Part 3: What Do the Palestinians Want?
• Part 4: What Effect with the End of the Moratorium on Settlement Construction on Sept. 26 Have?
• Part 5: Will There Be a Serious Peace Process?