Listening to former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, one might think that the much-discussed power-sharing deal between her and embattled President General Pervez Musharraf is a done deal. And surely, both sides stand to benefit from what would undoubtedly be a marriage of convenience. But with increasing pressure from upcoming elections and difficult compromises demanded by both sides, the hastily arranged union may fail before it is sealed.

The arithmetic for both sides is clear. Months of protests over Musharraf's suspension of the chief justice of the country's high court have severely eroded his power base and alienated him from the liberal middle class. Likewise, the president's violent July crackdown ending the siege of the Red Mosque did him no favors with the Islamists in Pakistan who were leery of Musharraf's leadership already.

Bhutto, for her part, is desperate to return to Pakistani politics after eight years in exile. But with elections coming this autumn (an exact date has not yet been set) both realize they may need to share power for either of them to have any at all.

Many Sticking Points

Still, even if both are interested in a pact, the deal itself -- which a government official on Thursday said had not been finalized despite claims by Bhutto to the contrary -- has many sticking points. “This is still a dialogue, not a deal,” Information Minister Mohammad Ali Durrani said cautiously on Thursday.

With more to gain from the media attention, Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has been more vocal. “A large number of points have been agreed, but an agreement has not yet been finalized,” PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar told SPIEGEL ONLINE. “So far our understanding is that Musharraf will shed his uniform before the presidential elections,” Babar said, claiming success in one of the most critical challenges to these negotiations.

One of the main bones of contention is Musharraf’s dual role as president and army chief of staff, a state of affairs that has been controversial in Pakistan ever since Musharraf took power in a military coup in 1999 and became president in 2001. But it is particularly abhorrent to the anti-military Bhutto who’s own father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was overthrown as prime minister in 1977 then hanged by a military dictator, General Zia ul-Haq. If Benazir Bhutto was ever going to deal with an army strong man such as Musharraf, she would need a concession on the so-called “uniform issue” in order to save face.

For Musharraf, the risks inherent in such a move are myriad. His eight-year presidency has depended on maintaining stability in the country. His ability to do so, many Pakistanis -- not to mention the West -- believe, comes from his military backing. Desperate times call for desperate measures, however, from both the ailing military president as well as his former political foe.

Truncated by Corruption

Also on Bhutto’s list of demands is a constitutional amendment allowing her to stand as premier for the third time, which is currently illegal. She would also like to see corruption charges against her dropped. Both of her previous terms as Pakistan's prime minister -- one which began in 1988 and the other beginning in 1993 -- were truncated by corruption allegations.

The PPP is also keen for the presidential political system, historically favored by Pakistan’s many military rulers, to be toned down in favor of a more parliamentary one. “We want the restoration of the balance of power between parliament and the presidency whereby the president shall have no powers to dismiss the house,” said Babar.

Musharraf’s 17th amendment to the constitution, which gave him this power among others, is one of many legal decisions likely to be challenged in the run up to the elections. Indeed, the courts will play such a key role for all parties in the coming months that the result of the elections may effectively be decided at the judges’ bench -- well before voters even go to the ballot box.

Indeed, the president's attempt to sack the nation’s fiercely independent Chief Justice Ifthikar Chaudhry backfired so badly that many commentators predicted it would be his political downfall.

What is more, these legal problems are just one of the obstacles before a successful union between Musharraf and Bhutto. “The alliance may not happen even if a deal is brokered," says veteran political analyst Talat Masood. There are, he says, potential legal impediments and political challenges and even the electorate may prove suspicious of such a pact.

“The PML-Q party, which supports Musharraf, is disintegrating rapidly and Bhutto may lose her die-hard supporters who think she has compromised her ideology,” he added. “But what they lose on each side, they are hoping to gain by putting their lots in together, but they could both lose out."

Sworn Political Enemy

Like it or not, though, circumstances have forced them together. “Each side needs each other. Benazir wants the corruption cases against her to be withdrawn and to be prime minister again,” Masood said. “Musharraf has his own concerns. He needs the support of her political party to ensure he has support of a modern political party and might not have to manipulate the elections to win them."

The political landscape will be further complicated by the impending return of Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister ousted by Musharraf’s military coup in 1999. Musharraf’s sworn political enemy announced on Thursday his intention to return on Sept. 10, despite unresolved corruption charges against him and an outstanding lifetime prison sentence.

Should he be allowed to participate in the elections instead of being sent straight to the slammer when he lands at the airport, he might represent a powerful alternative to the Bhutto-Musharraf alliance.

“As (Musharaff and Bhutto) lose support, they could find Sharif becoming increasingly and threateningly popular,” warned Masood. “Musharraf and Bhutto, like all of us in Pakistan these days, can’t afford to take anything for granted."