If envy is the highest form of human recognition, Al Gore can't complain. The response from the White House to the Norwegian Nobel Committee's decision to award Gore the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was understated, to say the least. There was no comment from US President George W. Bush, nor from his press secretary, Dana Perino. The White House eventually sent its deputy press secretary, Tony Fratto, to face the cameras. "Obviously, it's an important recognition," said Fratto. Referring to the president, he added, "Of course he's happy for Vice President Gore."

Such terse responses will likely do the conservatives more harm than good. Indeed, the political aftershocks of the award will be considerable. The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to an avowed anti-Bush activist only weeks before the official start of an election year could produce a tectonic shift in the already unstable US political landscape.

Shortly after losing the 2000 presidential election to Bush, the Cassandra-like Gore began traveling the country with his angry and sometimes shrill message. He even shocked some members of his own party with his seeming eccentricity. Gore's criticism went well beyond the hole in the ozone layer. He railed against the media's thirst for sensationalism, repeatedly criticized the hypocrisies of a democracy which is heavily influenced by lobbyists and chastised the administration for its lies throughout the Iraq war. But unlike his predecessor in Troy, this modern-day Cassandra has now been named an honorary citizen of the world.

The Triple-Action Gore Factor

The effect of this recognition is so powerful that one could easily call it the Gore factor. It acts primarily in three directions. First, Gore will have an influence on his own party. The Democrats have long debated how radical their break with the Bush era should be if they win the White House in 2008. Gore will only heat up this debate even further.

Unlike Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, Gore doesn't need to call himself an "agent of change." He already is one. The others have advisors, but Gore has his own message: that it will take more than a few adjustments and corrections to save the climate. Instead, Gore is pushing for a real new beginning. His advisor, Michael Feldman, says that the freshly minted Nobel laureate is determined "to change the political climate in America."

Even without an official title in the party hierarchy, Gore could find himself leading a Democratic counter-revolution. He will also play an important role in the party's nomination of its presidential candidate. Donna Brazile, his former campaign manager, is convinced that Gore "can play kingmaker."

The Gore factor is also making itself felt among conservatives, by driving a wedge between Bush and his party. The president is now more or less on his own with his climate policy. After long denying the problem, Bush was eventually forced, by overwhelming scientific evidence, to at least partly recognize that human activity plays a role in climate change. His most recent approach has been to circumvent the United Nations, and the climate protection treaty it will debate in Bali, through separate talks with some of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.

Leading Republicans, recognizing that many voters are increasingly dismayed by this disdain for the environment and the UN, have been seeking to align themselves with the new mood for some time now. Republican presidential candidate John McCain, for example, said last Friday that climate policy is one of his key concerns.

'Never Say No'

In his speeches and articles, Gore attacks the fundamental values of American neoconservatives: their trust in growth, their disdain for environmental protection, their military first-strike doctrine and their misuse of the public's fear of terrorism to impose a host of restrictions on civil rights and liberties. Gore's criticism has even found resonance within the president's own party, as the Republicans' liberal wing gains strength. Meanwhile, the decline in popularity of the neoconservatives is likely to continue.

But the Gore factor is having its most powerful effect in a sphere beyond partisan politics, penetrating deep into the insecure American middle class. Its way of life -- and this is the real message behind the Nobel Committee's decision -- is no longer sustainable. The country at the center of global capitalism is so obviously living at the expense of its future that the director of the German Historical Museum in Berlin might want to consider lending Washington some of the Green Party's campaign posters from the 1980s. The slogan on the posters reads: "We have only borrowed the world from our children."

But America goes on consuming as if it had already sold off the future of its grandchildren. Energy consumption remains consistently high. The roads are packed with an armada of trucks, vans and large SUVs. Streetlights are left on during the day in some places. Windows are left open with the air-conditioning on full blast. The result of this behavior is that Americans, who make up roughly 5 percent of the world's population, are responsible for more than 20 percent of its energy consumption.

America Must Change

The same borrowing against the future is happening in the economy. The American economic miracle, which still manages to produce high growth rates and, more recently, more jobs, is being generated with borrowed money. Private households can easily compete with the government for the dubious distinction of being the biggest borrower. The savings rate, that is, the share of their incomes people put away for future use, has dropped to zero. The Germans, by comparison, save 11 percent of their income, while the Chinese put away 45 percent.

Both the government and society are doing nothing to reduce the country's enormous trade deficit. America consumes imported goods as if there were no tomorrow, but without providing the world with exported goods in return. American households today look like warehouses for the Chinese export industry. Meanwhile, the government is forced to keep the major exporting countries happy by issuing more and more treasury bonds. The world's biggest lender has turned into the world's biggest borrower. America once owned a piece of the world. Today the world owns an increasingly large piece of America.

For the first time, according to recent opinion polls, more people are now pessimistic (35 percent) than optimistic (30 percent) about the future prospects of their own country. The rest are undecided. This uncertainty is fertile ground for the kind of political change Gore wants to see happen. His fundamental criticism mirrors the current fears of the middle class that things are going downhill for the United States. He articulates the unease of a country that has greater expectations for itself. "Why does our immune system no longer operate as it once did?" Gore asks in his most recent book, "The Assault on Reason."

A man with so much momentum could do anything, even run for president again. For Gore, it would be the only way to overcome the humiliation of his slim defeat in the last presidential election. He will likely spend the next few months in Hillary Clinton's shadow. Gore can only join the fray if her campaign somehow falters. It would be difficult for Gore to justify campaigning against the wife of his former boss.

The Democratic Party demands harmony from its leading politicians, not a bloodbath within the Clinton clan. Al Gore himself continues to deny having presidential ambitions, and yet he seems to be leaving his options open. He says that he wants to help bring about change. But his advisors add, with a wink: "Never say no."