A New Era in International Relations: Germany's New Government Faces Tough Work Abroad

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But the most pressing problem will likely be the development of a new course in Afghanistan, Perthes says. Although the Afghanistan mission, he says, is not a "vital question for NATO" -- the alliance is too stable for that -- Germany's behavior could clearly become a "vital question for our position within NATO."

The United States, as the leading power in the Western military alliance, expects its allies to make new efforts. For Germany, this would probably mean increasing its contribution in all areas, including police, military and reconstruction personnel, as well as boosting its financial contribution.

Perthes warns that the Germans must prepare themselves for his new role. "We must know exactly what we want."

Other European countries are also waiting for Germany to take a clearer stance on international issues. At this point Berlin is "no longer an inspiring force in European politics," says SWP Director Perthes. "The time will come when the biggest member state will have to answer the question: Where do we want to go?"

Chaos on the Horizon?

Ralf Fücks has thought about the decisions Europe will face in its foreign policy. The former Green Party politician, now co-chairman of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, paints a scenario with potentially horrific consequences for German policy.

Fücks pauses often when he speaks, almost as if he himself were a little taken aback by the enormity of the problems he describes. According to Fücks, the countries that make up the former Yugoslavia could descend into the chaos if their attempts to integrate themselves into the EU and NATO are delayed. Former Soviet republics like Belarus and Ukraine, he says, will need help to avoid coming under Moscow's control, while Turkey deserves a genuine offer of acceptance into the EU. "We need fundamental decisions within a politically relevant time frame -- that is, in the next few years," says Fücks.

This is particularly true of Turkey. "We will not be able to form a strategic alliance with Turkey unless we truly open the door for it to join the EU," says Fücks. Until that happens, he says, the Turks will continue to pursue a "see-saw policy," maintaining their own relations with countries like Russia and Iran.

In Fücks' view, the EU needs Ankara to strengthen its position toward Russia on such issues as the energy supply. The EU plans to bring natural gas from Central Asia and the Middle East to Europe through the planned Nabucco pipeline in Turkey. The Russians are attempting to thwart this effort by making Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan counter-offers in the energy sector.

But the EU has little interest in taking on new members, and its expansion policies have been put on ice. The negotiations over Turkey's accession, which began in 2005, have turned into a farce, in which 13 of the 35 negotiating chapters are currently not even on the table. Berlin, which has not taken a stance on the Turkey issue for years, is partly to blame. The SPD and the CDU, together with its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have simply ignored the issue, because they disagreed on it. The next administration will have to decide whether it can continue the same approach without jeopardizing projects like the Nabucco pipeline.

Similar considerations apply in the Balkans. The EU is keeping its distance from the successor states of the former Yugoslavia. Croatia is being denied acceptance into the EU because Slovenia, citing a border dispute with Zagreb, is using its veto to block membership. Meanwhile, Greece is blocking Macedonian membership in NATO because of a dispute over the country's name. The protectorates of Kosovo and Bosnia, where about 15,000 EU and NATO troops are stationed, are making little headway. US diplomats are already concerned that the western Balkans could "drift away" unless Europe wakes up soon.

Fücks has a simple solution to avert this danger: promoting EU membership. Even the prospect of membership, says Fücks, is an engine for reform in candidate countries. But because this prospect is becoming blurred, the Balkans threaten to deteriorate into chaos once again. "The EU must clarify whether it intends to postpone expansion policy indefinitely in favor of internal stability," he says. "This has bitter consequences."

Fücks and Perthes describe decisions that are neither symbolic nor popular. They call for a clear analysis of interests and the willingness to use political capital.

Does German Foreign Policy Whitewash the World?

Eberhard Sandschneider, 54, head of the research institute of the German Council on Foreign Relations, goes even a step further. "German foreign policy will have to slaughter several sacred cows after the election," he says.

The world Sandschneider describes is not a pleasant place. He believes that reforming the United Nations is an illusion, and that the establishment of a new world government headed by the G-20 group is nothing but a pleasant dream. "All that we will see in the future is the creation of temporary alliances in varying configurations," says Sandschneider. Germans and Europeans, he says, should get used to the idea, so they won't run out of steam when confronted with the maneuverings of the powerful -- the Americans, Russians, Chinese and Indians.

In Sandschneider's view of the world, the protection of human rights has "served its time as a maxim of foreign policy." Interests will dominate over values, he says, or else the West will be unable to find a common basis for interacting with rising major powers like China.

Sandschneider believes that German foreign policy whitewashes the world, and he cites the conflict over Iran's nuclear program as an example. For years, says Sandschneider, the West has been fighting this program, and yet most experts know that "Iran will become a nuclear state, and the West will not be able to prevent it from happening."

No German government will embark with enthusiasm on the path Sandschneider describes, which will entail radically questioning its own fundamental assumptions.

But perhaps it would be more tempting for a new government to modify the way it communicates the coming changes in foreign policy. Almost two dozen nuclear bombs are stored near the Eifel Mountains town of Büchel. Wouldn't it be an exciting disarmament initiative for the new administration, after taking office, to demand their removal from Germany?

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