America's Hour of Truth: The Risk of Failure in Afghanistan and Iraq

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VI. More is being negotiated in Iraq and Afghanistan than merely the stabilization of both countries and their societies. The conflicts revolve around entire regions, political spheres of influence and a sort of a end game around the role of the United States in the world. It is quite possible that historians will one day look back at the beginning of the 21st century as the period when the United States lost its status as a superpower, on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, to China, which currently wields a "soft power" worldwide that many believe already exceeds that of the United States. It is also quite possible that Barack Obama will go down in history as the president who finally ushered in the decline of US dominance.

But in these months and years, which are also heavily burdened by a historic global economic crisis, the United States, and its role in the world, isn't the only thing at stake. The wars being waged in Iraq and Afghanistan may be primarily American wars, but in their wake, three major players in global politics are experiencing their hours of truth. The UN, NATO and the European Union run the risk of finding themselves among the collateral damage of the current wars, particularly the one in Afghanistan.

The European Union's Absence

In Afghanistan, all three have demonstrated that, as crisis intervention forces, they are little more than expensive total failures. The UN may have launched successful vaccination and education programs in Afghanistan and improved health care here and there, which is certainly not to be overlooked, but it has failed completely as a self-proclaimed master of nation-building. During the course of the ISAF operation, NATO proved to be a quarreling bunch of individual armies, each acting on its own, capable of neither winning a war nor establishing peace. The Europeans were, after all, absent as a European Union, and the individual European countries that did send troops as part of ISAF almost fought more energetically to defend their own interests -- just as they do in Brussels -- than against the enemies of a new Afghanistan.

These conclusions lead to a sobering realization: In Afghanistan, the hope that reasonable multilateral solutions exist for the world's central problems is currently waning. In any event, the prospect that today's agencies of the international community will fail at their self-imposed touchstone, Afghanistan, cannot remain without consequences for the fabric of the world.

A positive consequence could be that the parties involved will analyze their joint failure and find their way to substantial reforms that could involve restructuring NATO, the UN and the EU, but no one believes this will happen. Negative consequences are more likely. The members of the international coalition did not find common ground in Afghanistan, but in fact became more estranged from one another. Rifts are opening up, largely between the United States and Europe, but also, on a smaller scale, between many European countries. Germany, in particular, became isolated and even exposed to international derision because of its complicated special role in the military mission.

If the Afghanistan mission were to end as shabbily as it seems that it could at the moment -- in that the members of ISAF simply slink away, one after another, without leaving the country and the region with any prospects -- it would be a total loss in terms of global politics. This is why the relevant world leaders must now find a way to cooperate, not in their usual, routine fashion, but with all seriousness and in full knowledge of the dramatic situation, with the intent of beginning work on a reasonable, sustainable solution.

A major Afghanistan conference, one that puts an end to the catastrophic status quo and truly brings all players, including the dubious ones, to the negotiating table, is the order of the day.

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• Part 1: The Risk of Failure in Afghanistan and Iraq
• Part 2: How the President Deals with Armed Conflicts
• Part 3: The Prospect of Civil War Is Never Far Away
• Part 4: A Consistently Dismal Outlook for Afghanistan
• Part 5: In Afghanistan, Options Are Extreme and Contradictory
• Part 6: An Endgame Around the Role of the US in the World