By Alexander Szandar and Susanne Koelbl
NATO has so far failed to persuade the Bundeswehr to fight the Taliban in the south. But now the Taliban is heading north.
But the praise Khalid was heaping on Germany last Wednesday in speeches to foreign policy experts in the German parliament, the Bundestag, at the Foreign Office and to journalists in Berlin was merely a polite introduction to a series of concrete requests. The Taliban are "not as strong as they were last year" in their former stronghold of Kandahar, the governor said. But, he added, "coping with" the enemy will require more civilian reconstruction helpers, additional ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) troops and "especially more German troops."
Washington has long criticized the Bundeswehr for remaining in the relatively calm north, while the United States and allies like Great Britain, Canada and the Netherlands face high casualties in the more volatile south. New British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called several times for a fair "distribution of the burden," a reference to both troop strength (London, with close to 7,800 troops, has the second-largest contingent in Afghanistan next to the United States) and casualties. The British have lost 42 soldiers in fighting and attacks in Afghanistan this year alone. Meanwhile the Germans, who, with their roughly 3,200 troops, have the third-largest contingent in the country, have lost only 3 soldiers in 2007.
Could German soldiers soon find themselves fighting in the embattled south and east of the country, in explosive provinces like Kandahar, Uruzgan and Helmand? So far the government in Berlin has successfully managed to avoid sending the Bundeswehr on combat missions in the Taliban's strongholds.
"We are concentrating on the north, and that's how we plan to keep it," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a brief visit to Kabul in November. Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung, a member of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has also stood his ground when confronted with the demands of Germany's allies and Khalid's recent requests. "The question as to whether we will have to expand our Bundeswehr contingent is not an issue at this time," Jung said.
According to senior military officials in Berlin, the maximum troop strength of 3,500 soldiers approved by the Bundestag is already "pushing the limits" and is in fact too low.
To make matters worse, the Taliban is upping the pressure on northern Afghanistan. The group's Islamist holy warriors have begun to march northward and are already practically at the Bundeswehr's doorstep.
Western intelligence agents have noticed that the Taliban is advancing in two directions in a pincer movement. Some Taliban groups are moving north from Helmand Province, Afghanistan's center of opium poppy cultivation, toward the capital Kabul. Other Taliban units are moving away from Helmand and Kandahar and sweeping up westwards through provinces like Herat and Badghis, and toward Kunduz, where the Bundeswehr maintains a reconstruction team of 400 troops. The Germans, as it turns out, are being wedged in on both sides.
Taliban Repeats its 1990s Strategy
The Taliban's strategy reminds military officials of the early 1990s. That was when the Taliban movement began in southern Afghanistan, almost exclusively home to ethnic Pashtuns. The group's army of religious warriors began its campaign in Kandahar in 1994. Three years later it was positioned just outside Mazar-i-Sharif, where, at Camp Marmal, the Germans now maintain their central command headquarters for nine provinces.
Mazar-i-Sharif is the main city in the north. It is home to Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and Turkmen, all traditional enemies of the Taliban. But Pashtuns have also settled in Kunduz Province, enabling the Taliban to gain a foothold there in the 1990s. In the interplay of relations among Afghans, clan membership has traditionally been the strongest binding force.
In 1997, with the support of Kunduz's Pashtuns, the Taliban launched a successful attack on Mazar-i-Sharif. They captured the city's downtown, lost it again for a brief period, but then eventually took the city and held it until the Americans and their Afghan allies arrived in November 2001.
It appears that the Taliban now plan to repeat their 1990s strategy. In October, close to 300 fighters gathered in the border region in Faryab and Badghis provinces, both on the western edge of the German zone. They overran police stations, occupied several districts and blocked the "Ring Road," the country's main road connecting Kabul with other cities. They received support from Pashtun settlers and poor refugees from the civil war who had returned from Pakistan and Iran.
The counteroffensive began in late October. Under the command of German General Dieter Warnecke, roughly 900 Afghan soldiers, accompanied by about 300 Germans and a rapid intervention force of more than 200 Norwegians, set out into Badghis Province.
For the first time since they joined the mission in Afghanistan, the Germans, in an operation known as "Harekate Yolo-2," requested air support from allied fighter jets. More than a dozen Taliban fighters were killed in the bombing attacks, while Afghan forces took many others prisoner. But most of the Taliban fighters managed to escape into the countryside.
The intelligence agencies believe that the Taliban plans to recapture its old base at Kunduz, using tactics that would presumably resemble its strategy in the south. It promises poor farmers money and protection for their poppy fields, intimidates the local population with brutal attacks on supposed ISAF collaborators and attempts to weaken the NATO forces with attacks and force them to retreat to their fortified military bases.
The suicide attack on a German patrol in the market at Kunduz on May 19, 2007 may have represented the first step in a strategy meant to destabilize the region, which had been relatively quiet until then. Three German soldiers and five Afghans were killed in the attack.
The Taliban has since ramped up its attacks, routinely shooting at Bundeswehr vehicles and firing rockets and rocket-propelled grenades into camps and threatening German soldiers with booby traps and mines. Reconnaissance photos reveal that the Taliban fighters have no qualms about disguising themselves and their weapons under burkas, the traditional women's clothing.
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