Israel-Lebanon Conflict: Lots of Questions, Few Answers in Border Skirmish

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On Tuesday evening at 8:30 p.m. local time, people all over Lebanon were glued to their television sets. They wanted to know if the next war had already started.

Earlier on Tuesday, a skirmish between Israeli and Lebanese troops had broken out on the border between the two countries, leaving four people dead. Although the situation eventually calmed down -- at least for now -- for a few hours it looked like the two countries were on the brink of war.

In the fishing port of Tyre in the south of Lebanon, the harbor bars were unable to hold all the crowds who wanted to know whether war had broken out. They stood out on the street, listening to a televised broadcast by Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah. How would he react to the fighting on the Israeli border?

Nasrallah spoke for almost two hours. He condemned the "Israeli aggression" and threatened that, when the next border incident happened, his militia would fight together with the Lebanese army against the enemy. His choice of words was belligerent: "The Israeli hand that targets the Lebanese Army will be cut off." But Nasrallah did not go beyond such soundbites in his speech.

Tense Relations

His restraint came as a surprise -- a pleasant one for many observers. After his address, which was transmitted by video link, the sky over Tyre began to glow. Hezbollah supporters celebrated their leader's address with fireworks, while others were just happy that, after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, another armed conflict had been averted for the time being. Nasrallah had not declared a campaign against Israel, as many had feared.

In July 2006, the abduction of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah, which acts as a kind of state-within-a-state in Lebanon, triggered a month-long war which left 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israeli soldiers dead.

Relations between Israel and Lebanon have been extremely tense for months. Now a battle has begun over interpretations of Tuesday's incident, which could have escalated into war. The only thing that is certain is that Israeli soldiers exchanged fire with the Lebanese army after Israeli troops had tried to cut down a cypress tree growing in the border area. But many questions remain unanswered:

• Where exactly was the tree? Lebanon accuses Israel of having penetrated into Lebanese territory. But the Israelis say that the tree stood on their land. A United Nations spokesperson has confirmed the latter version.
• Who opened fire first? Sources close to the UN troops stationed in southern Lebanon told SPIEGEL ONLINE that the Israeli version of events was correct, namely that Lebanese soldiers had fired first. Israel only responded to that attack, they said, albeit with guns, tanks, artillery and helicopter gunships. The Lebanese army has since admitted that its soldiers began the skirmish. In a statement issued to the news agency AFP, a spokesman said: "The Lebanese army opened fire first at Israeli soldiers who entered Lebanese territory ... This constituted defense of our sovereignty and is an absolute right." Two Lebanese soldiers, a Lebanese journalist and one Israeli officer were killed in the clash.
• Why were shots fired? On Wednesday, Israeli media put the blame on an overzealous Lebanese officer. Israel Radio reported that the Lebanese commander had exploited a delay in maintenance work to put snipers into position in the area. After a verbal confrontation, the snipers opened fire on Israeli soldiers, Israel Radio said. The Lebanese side has so far not commented on the allegations.
• What is behind the incident? Here, too, there is only speculation. One Israeli radio station commented that it was curious that many Lebanese journalists had been invited to the border area in advance. Hezbollah was apparently not involved in the incident. The Lebanese commander accused of sparking the incident, however, is a Shiite with extreme views and a supporter of Hezbollah, military commentator Alex Fishman claimed in the Israeli daily newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. The officer had probably acted on his own, Fishman wrote: "Such a commander in such an explosive region as southern Lebanon could be the catalyst of a war that nobody wants." Fishman also raised the question of whether the soldier was acting on secret orders from Hezbollah.

'The Perfect Excuse'

According to media reports, the Israeli leadership on Tuesday considered implementing a previously drafted plan of attack, which would have involved bombing Lebanese army positions in southern Lebanon. Only international pressure and protests by the Lebanese government apparently kept the Israelis from responding to the border incident with force.

One expert in Lebanon, however, believes that neither country has any interest in a conflict. "If one side had wanted a war, then this skirmish would have been the perfect excuse to start one," said the observer, who did not want to be named.

Israel is apparently relying on the assumption that Lebanon does not want war. On Wednesday, the Israeli army continued its maintenance work at the border. Soldiers were cutting down trees along the border under the protection of several tanks. There was also a substantial military presence on the Lebanese side. So far, however, no further incidents have been reported.