International


Paranoia and Conspiracy: Dispatches Lay Bare Rocky US Relationship with Karzai

By Susanne Koelbl

The US dispatches unveiled by WikiLeaks show just how deep the mistrust is between the US and Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Saudi Arabia's mediator role between NATO and the Taliban, it also becomes clear, faces several hurdles.

Photo Gallery: The Rocky Relations in the Hindu Kush
Photos
REUTERS

It is July 2009 and there are less than two months to go until the presidential election in Afghanistan. Incumbent Hamid Karzai is considered the clear favorite for a second term in office, but his relationship with the United States has turned frosty.

The president has taken to railing furiously against his political protector when talking to his own confidants, but he also doesn't hide his anger in direct talks with US representatives. The US ambassador in Kabul, Karl Eikenberry, is growing concerned and writes in a dispatch to Washington: "Karzai contended … that the US had lost its purpose over the past six years," according to a dispatch from July 2009. Referring to a meeting he held with Karzai, Eikenberry wrote that he was "questioning the US commitment to a strong partnership with Afghanistan."

For Karzai, it's also a matter of personal loyalty -- the proud Pashtun leader is convinced the US has thrown its backing behind his rival Abdullah Abdullah. Karzai believes the US is looking to get rid of him.

For security reasons, the Afghan president has hardly left his palace in Kabul for nearly nine years. His worldview is shaped by conversations with visitors from around the country and meetings with his loyal advisors.

The uneasy relationship with the US can be traced to the presidency of George W. Bush, but it has worsened since President Barack Obama moved into the White House. Karzai even has difficulties getting a videoconference appointment with the new president; when Bush held the office, the two leaders were in touch weekly. Nor does the Afghan president get along well with Obama's special representative to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke.

An 'Ever-Shrewd Politician'

Ambassador Eikenberry drew up a detailed psychological profile of Karzai, portraying the leader as driven by "paranoia" and "misperceptions," fluctuating between an "overly self-conscious" personality who believes his best days are behind him and an "ever-shrewd politician" who sees himself "as a nationalist hero who can save the country from being divided by the decentralization-focused agenda of Abdullah, other political rivals, neighboring countries and the US."

Nearly 19,000 of the American diplomatic dispatches that have now been made public by WikiLeaks deal exclusively or partially with Afghanistan. They reveal a political debacle and US diplomatic efforts to get the situation under control. They shed light on NATO's role in the country and on the intricate network of string-pullers behind the scenes.

ORIGINALS: THE KEY AFGHANISTAN CABLES
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Following the controversial elections in August 2009, a vote that was marred by accusations of vast irregularities, the US forced Karzai into a run-off with his challenger Abdullah. Karzai's supporters in particularly were suspected of having committed election fraud on a massive scale. In the end, however, Abdullah backed out of the run-off, wanting to spare himself defeat.

"It's like a game show where you've answered one question correctly and now you can either take your 'win' and go home, or risk it all to answer the last question," Amrullah Saleh, head of Karzai's secret services, offered as his analysis of Abdullah's tactics, over a dinner in Kabul with US Senator Richard Burr. "All of Abdullah's options," Saleh said, "are coming to a dead end."

A 'Semi-Modern Aristocracy'

Abdullah's withdrawal from the run-off did great damage to Karzai, effectively robbing him of legitimacy. Furthermore, the episode did nothing to improve relations between the Afghan president and his American protectors.

Still, the true power base in Afghanistan often lies far from the political poker games of Kabul, in the hands of rural tribes, whose structures are often difficult to penetrate. The Karzais are extremely well positioned here, as shown in one detailed dispatch primarily addressing the role of Hamid Karzai's younger half-brother Ahmed Wali.

In the southern province of Kandahar, home province of the president and also the region where the Taliban movement was founded, the Popalzai clan, with tribal leader Hamid Karzai at the helm, oversees a "semi-modern aristocracy," according to the cable. Ahmed Wali Karzai, formerly the owner of a restaurant in Chicago, acts as the spider at the center of the web, trying to "increase Karzai political dominance."

Kandahar City, near the border with Pakistan, is a crossroads for goods of all types, as well as for military supplies. The tribes here vie for multi-million-dollar contracts with the Western coalition, but also for land and power. Bolstered by the authority of his brother the president, Ahmed Wali helps his family members and friends land "licit and illicit enterprises," according to a US dispatch.

These deals concern enormous budgets in the security, construction and transport industries, but also lucrative -- and naturally illegal -- control of the all-important ring road and the development of Ayno Maina, an exclusive housing community on the eastern edge of Kandahar City. "The Popalzai occupy the leadership pinnacle," reads a US Embassy dispatch.

Involvement in the Opium Trade?

According to a dispatch dated Feb. 25 of this year, Ahmed Wali appeared "nervous but eager to engage with a US official." He indignantly denied all accusations of heavy involvement in the opium trade, allegations that have festered for years. They are, Ahmed Wali said, simply part of a "campaign to discredit him." Rumors of his ostensible drug trafficking are "like a spice added to a dish to make it more enticing to eat." The embassy deputy who spoke to Ahmed Wali wrote: "He appears not to understand the level of our knowledge of his activities."

Canada, which has troops stationed in Kandahar, would prefer simply to strip Karzai's brother of power, according to a dispatch concerning the visit of the Canadian ambassador to the US. Canada, the ambassador made clear, believes this is the only way to establish law and order in the region. But when it comes to the battle against such corruption, the US sees a "serious dilemma." The Afghan government's efforts toward "bringing to justice major corrupt figures … would include some of Karzai's closest relatives and allies and require the prosecution of people on whom we often rely for assistance and/or support."

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Reaction from the US Government
In a statement, the White House has condemned the publication of "private diplomatic discussions" with foreign governments by SPIEGEL and four other international media on Sunday. Click on the link below to read the statement in full.


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