Undeclared War: Putin's Covert Invasion of Eastern Ukraine
Moscow has continued to deny direct involvement in the fighting in eastern Ukraine. But evidence to the contrary continues to mount. NATO says up to 1,000 Russian soldiers have joined the fray and the pro-Russian separatists have made a remarkable turnaround.
In the middle of a field of withered sunflowers stands a man in a white shirt wondering if war or peace will ultimately prevail. His name is Paul Picard and he is the head of the OSCE Observer Mission on the Russian-Ukrainian border in southern Russia.
Picard, a Frenchman, is witness each day to the events taking shape along the border, but there's little he can do to stop them. His mandate with the observer mission is limited to the scope of a few meters inside the border because Russia and the other OSCE member states failed to reach an agreement on anything more extensive. Picard and his 15 staff don't even have permission to inspect the cars and trucks that are legally crossing the border. Nor do they have the right to stop people who are penetrating the border into the Ukraine through unguarded fields.
One of the border crossings under OSCE observation is located near a city on Russian soil with 50,000 inhabitants. The municipality is surrounded to the north, south and west by Ukrainian territory. Strangely, the city is named Donetsk -- the same as the embattled bastion of pro-Russian separatists some 160 kilometers (99 miles) to the west in Ukraine.
For weeks, the Russian Donetsk has also played an important role in the conflict over Ukraine's future. It has become the hub for Putin's creeping invasion. Two barracks are located at the edge of the city and 50 military vehicles parked at one of the facilities. Pro-Russian fighters from eastern Ukraine can be seen walking in the city center. They claim they are "here to rest." A group of Chechens wearing bullet-proof vests and armed with pistols is standing next to their Ladas, which have no license plates.
Just as Picard is giving an interview to Russian television, a military jeep with a Russian license plate and decals of the Russian airborne troops passes by. The men sitting inside wear camouflage and identify themselves to SPIEGEL as rebels. It's also possible they're Russian soldiers, or at least that they still were only a few days earlier.
Vacation in a War Zone
But Picard can't say such things -- he needs clear proof first. His reports instead make frequent reference to "people in military uniforms crossing the border in both directions."
In his interview, Picard states that he and his men, stationed at the border crossings in Donetsk and Gukovo, haven't observed the delivery of any military equipment to Ukrainian territory. It's a sentence that will then be broadcast that night on the Russian news. Picard's observation that this applies only to his OSCE mandate -- in other words, "the 40-meter border in Donetsk and the 40-meter (130 foot) border in Gukovo"-- is ignored entirely by the Russian propaganda.
As is so much else. The list of deliberate lies that President Vladimir Putin spews about Ukraine to both his people and the world is long and cynical -- including his claim that Russian soldiers spotted in Ukraine had either gotten lost or were spending their vacation in the war zone.
Putin's house of cards, which began teetering last week following numerous reports from observers and also NATO satellite images, holds many risks -- not just in terms of foreign policy, but also domestically. The reintegration of Crimea into Russia and Putin's tough stance against the West may have quickly driven his popularity rating to over 80 percent. But last week, when the first reports emerged of deaths among Russian recruits in Ukraine, the mood began to darken.
Putin is also lying because fears of war are rooted so deeply in the Russian populace. In the 20th century alone, more than 40 million Russians lost their lives in armed conflict. The exact number is unknown because in Afghanistan and in the two Chechen wars, Moscow has kept casualty numbers classified. But memories of those events are now being evoked in many Russians.
It remains difficult to ascertain whether Putin is using the secret invasion of recent weeks to bolster his position ahead of an EU and NATO summit on Sept. 4, or if he does in fact want to establish a land corridor through eastern Ukraine to Crimea. What is clear, however, is that Putin is willing to use any means at his disposal, including war, to prevent Ukraine from aligning itself more closely with the West. During a visit to a holiday camp for pro-Kremlin youth on Friday, Putin said, "We need to make the Ukrainian authorities start negotiations of real substance" with the insurgents.
A Bad Omen
Such a political course requires soldiers, among other things, to provide support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine. But they are to be kept secret from the international community -- and even the troops themselves often know little about their own mission. They are soldiers like Andrey Balobanov from Siberia.
The Russian recruit had just turned 18 when he got conscripted by the military last December. The day he left home, Balobanov welled up in tears. His father embraced him and they consoled each other with vodka. A mirror had shattered on the floor of the family's simple brick house in Panovo a short time earlier, portending a bad omen for the family.
"It was almost as if Andrey already had a premonition that something terrible would happen," his father Sergey says today. "He was afraid of the military."
During the first weeks, Andrey wrote upbeat letters to his family back home. But when his mother congratulated him on the occasion of his birthday in April, his voice seemed strangely distraught. "After that, I didn't hear his voice again," says Marina Balabonova. "Until July when he suddenly appeared as a prisoner of war in a Ukrainian video."
Up to that point, Andrey's parents had assumed that he had been completing his service in Garrison 65349 near the city of Samara, Russia, along the Volga River. A commanding officer also confirmed this when his parents sought contact with their son. They were informed that, unfortunately, their son was not available to speak. By then, though, he had likely already been sent to Belgorod, a Russian city located not far from the Ukrainian border. That, at least, is what he texted to a friend.
At the beginning of July, an investigator from the provincial capital of Omsk, located 300 kilometers away, paid a visit to the Balobanovs. He told the family that officials were searching for their son, who he claimed had left the troops without leave. By now, Marina and Sergey Balabonov were beside themselves with worry over their son. Andrey's father then filed a missing persons report with the police in Omsk.
On July 17, the family sent a letter to Vladimir Putin in which they wrote, "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are asking you to find our son Andrey." Marina, a saleswoman at "Sundown," one of the three shops in the 800-resident village, rummages through her son's room as she tries to find a copy of the letter and gathers photos and documents from the dresser.
"They have to get my Andrey back," she says. "He was just a normal soldier and Russia claims that it isn't even waging a war." She looks fatigued and says she has had rings around her eyes for weeks now. The knowledge that her son may be fighting in a war that doesn't even officially exist is making it difficult for her to sleep nights.
Last Thursday, the family received a letter from the public prosecutor stating that Andrey has been declared a deserter. The country to which he had pledged his allegiance and that dispatched him on a secret mission is now trying to label him as a traitor. "Our son may be sent to prison for up to five years," his father says. "But we're certain that he only wound up in Ukraine under his commander's orders."
The Balobanovs also received a letter from the Kremlin indirectly confirming that Andrey is being held as a prisoner of war. The letter states that the matter has been transferred to the Russian Foreign Ministry. "Since then, we've been getting calls constantly from people who don't identify themselves and demand that we not discuss the case with the press," says Sergey Balobanov.
Attempts at intimidation, lies and propaganda have all been part of Putin's creeping invasion of Ukraine for weeks. Hundreds of Russian soldiers have reportedly been removed from their units and allegedly sent on maneuvers before receiving orders to go to Ukraine.
In Pskov near the border to Estonia, police a week ago tracked down and harassed journalists trying to cover the burial of two soldiers who, by all appearances, perished in eastern Ukraine. Indeed, the number of instances in which Russian soldiers are dying under unexplained circumstances is growing.
In Kostroma, a city along the Volga, around 25 mothers and fathers stood in front of the barracks demanding to know the whereabouts of their sons.
Putin has been deceiving the world since the very beginning of the Ukraine crisis. When asked on March 4 if Russia was thinking about annexing Crimea, he answered, "No, we are not." But only 14 days later the peninsula's annexation was celebrated on Red Square.
- Part 1: Putin's Covert Invasion of Eastern Ukraine
- Part 2: The Great Rebel Recovery
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