The Beginning of the End?: The Iranian Regime's Fear of the People

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The leadership's fear of its own people is the consequence of an historic miscalculation on the night of the June 12 presidential election. With rarely seen audacity, Ahmadinejad declared himself the winner, even though the votes were a long way from being fully counted, and his most dangerous challenger, Mousavi, was probably running at least neck-and-neck with him.

In retrospect, it seems likely that election results were rigged in many districts to secure Ahmadinejad's reelection, apparently with Khamenei's support. This notion is reinforced by the fact that, despite all the protests, the revolutionary leader was suspiciously quick to congratulate his favorite, Ahmadinejad.

But contrary to what appeared to be the regime's expectations, millions of Mousavi supporters were not willing to accept the results. Three days after the election, hundreds of thousands gathered in Tehran for the largest protest march since the overthrow of the shah and peacefully chanted: "Where is my vote?" Leading the protest march was Mousavi, in his shirtsleeves and with a microphone in his hand.

Mousavi, once a bland technocrat, seemed to relish his new role as a people's leader and challenged the leadership by staging additional protests. The government struck back and eventually started shooting at protesters. Photos of the death of music student Neda quickly circled the world via the Internet, and she became an icon of the movement.

Wave of Protests

Despite mass arrests and show trials of regime critics, some of which ended in death sentences, the flood of protests did not subside. When the regime rigorously banned all protests, the movement cleverly used government propaganda events and a martyr culture that has been cultivated for decades to demonstrate its refusal to capitulate. Funerals of activists turned into impressive protest meetings, while official events, like those to mark the 30th anniversary of the occupation of the US Embassy in Tehran in November or the "Day of the Student" in early December, became open showdowns with security forces.

But it wasn't until the wave of protests on Ashura that the regime lost control over the street, and not just in Tehran. In incidents reminiscent of the riots against the shah, protesters overpowered brutal security forces nationwide, tore off their uniforms and triumphantly held up police boots and helmets like trophies. The perpetrators of violence had become the victims -- and vice-versa.

Eyewitnesses report scenes of regime thugs trembling in fear and of outraged protesters shouting: "Beat them! Beat them!" But in many cases other protesters apparently intervened, shouting "Let them go! Don't beat them!"

There has also been substantial damage to property. Buildings went up in flames, police cars were set on fire and many of the motorcycles that the feared Basij militias had used to brutally disperse groups of protesters were destroyed. One of the questions most heatedly discussed on Iranian blogs since the middle of the week is: "Are we now just as bad as our opponents?"

Still Powerful

Despite initial reports of insubordination among members of the Revolutionary Guard, the regime still has more clout than the protesters. The Pasdaran comprises 125,000 armed troops, and the special units that are particularly loyal to the regime are estimated to include between 5,000 and 10,000 men. The regime's militias count at least a million members. Roughly 90,000 members of the Basij are considered reliable and prepared to engage in street fighting. To enhance the operational capability of government forces, the militias have been placed under the command of the Pasdaran, of which Khamenei is the commander-in-chief.

President Ahmadinejad dismisses the unrest as a "disgusting spectacle." But the regime's nervousness is evident in how it is assigning blame for the protests, pointing its figure at the United States and the hated "Zionist entity," Israel.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has also assigned some of the blame to terrorists, by which he apparently means a group known as the People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (PMOI). And indeed, the group's spokeswoman, Maryam Rajavi, has been calling for an overthrow of the regime from her exile in France for years. However, many Iranians have not forgotten that the left-leaning Islamist organization was once in league with former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, who waged an eight-year war against their country.

'Without Restraint'

Instead of making compromises, the regime has focused its efforts on counter-demonstrations, and indeed managed to mobilize large groups of people in Tehran last week. The government has also announced that it will take even harsher action against the protesters. Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, provocatively called upon the courts to proceed against the protesters "without restraint." One of the representatives of the revolutionary leader, Ayatollah Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, publicly advocated the death penalty, invoking the system of velayat-e faqih, or guardianship of the Islamic jurists, which forms the core of the Iranian constitution.

The Islamists know that the downfall of Khamenei would spell the end of a corrupt system of patronage from which the conservative elite, many mullahs and, most of all, the large military-industrial complex consisting of the Pasdaran and Basij have profited handsomely for more than 30 years.

Opposition leader Mousavi has announced his willingness to die a martyr's death, and on Friday he delivered a list of demands to the regime. Its key points are the call for new, transparent voting rights, the release of political prisoners, a free press and the approval of peaceful demonstrations. Mousavi did not deign to mention his adversary Ahmadinejad or Ahmadinejad's benefactor Khamenei.

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• Part 1: The Iranian Regime's Fear of the People
• Part 2: The Regime's Historic Miscalculation