SPIEGEL Interview with George Soros 'You Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds'
Part 2: 'You Can Count on China To Back the Euro'
SPIEGEL: Do you think the European Central Bank is part of the solution or part of the problem when it comes to the dealing with the euro crisis?
Soros: It is part of the solution, but which part? Any central bank should only be in charge of liquidity. Solvency is a matter for the treasury. But because there is no European treasury, the ECB was pushed into that arena. To keep the financial system alive they overstepped their limits, as the former German Bundesbank president Axel Weber pointed out, by discounting the government bonds of a country that was clearly bankrupt.
SPIEGEL: You are referring to the purchase of Greek bonds. Now the European Central Bank even started buying Spanish and Italian bonds. It is not even clear, however, if it is legally allowed to do so.
Soros: Yes, but there is a well-established conviction that the central banks always do what is necessary to keep the system going and then afterwards you then take care of the legal aspects. In a crisis, you simply do not have time to think about such concerns for too long.
SPIEGEL: The United States is drowning in even more debt than Europeans. Its economic recovery has been painful. Are we going to see a double-dip recession in the US?
Soros: The indebtedness of the US is not all that high, but if a double-dip recession was in doubt a few weeks ago, it is less in doubt now, because financial markets have a very safe way of predicting the future. They cause it. And the markets have decided that America is going to see a recession, particularly after the recent downgrade of the US by the rating agency Standard & Poor's.
SPIEGEL: President Barack Obama has been fiercely criticized for his handling of the economy. You were one of his biggest supporters in 2008. Are you happy with his economic policy?
Soros: No, of course not. But the reality is that we have had 25 years of excesses building up in America -- a combustible mix of too much credit and too much leverage. You need a long time to reverse that.
SPIEGEL: Obama tried to stimulate growth with a gigantic stimulus program which increased the national debt further. Was that a mistake?
Soros: Obama embraced the ideas of John Maynard Keynes. Basically, the analysis of Keynes is still very relevant -- with one big difference between now and the 1930s. In the 1930s, governments had practically no debt and could therefore run deficits. Nowadays, all governments are heavily indebted, and that is a big change.
SPIEGEL: If Keynes were still alive, would he adjust his theory?
Soros: Definitely. He would say governments can still benefit from running fiscal deficits, but the new debt has to be invested in a way that will pay for itself. So the money spent would have to increase productivity.
SPIEGEL: The $800 billion stimulus program launched by Obama did not live up to that?
Soros: Obama's stimulus program was not big enough and it was not directed at improving infrastructure nor human capital. So it was not productive enough.
SPIEGEL: And any further stimulus is now basically a non-starter, because the conservative majority in Congress is hell-bent on preventing it.
Soros: That is what is pushing the world towards another recession, into a double dip.
SPIEGEL: The Republicans are doing that?
Soros: Yes, but Obama is also at fault. He yielded the agenda to the Republicans. He is talking their language. The president would have to show leadership to counter the Republican wave, and so far he has not done so.
SPIEGEL: Do you think the US deserved the recent downgrade by Standard & Poor's?
Soros: Probably not. This decision was the attempt by the rating agencies to reinvent themselves as anticipating rather than responding to changes that have occurred. So they are really basing that downgrade on the expectation that the political process will not provide the solution. Judging such political developments is a very new role for the rating agencies, though.
SPIEGEL: As an investor, do you listen to the rating agencies?
Soros: Well, I do not, but many other investors do.
SPIEGEL: The credit rating agencies are accused of exacerbating the crisis. Do you think the role of the rating agencies in the financial system needs to be scaled back?
Soros: I do not have an answer to that.
SPIEGEL: There are no alternatives.
Soros: Frankly. It is an unsolved problem in my mind
SPIEGEL: As an investor, would you still bet on the euro?
Soros: I certainly would not short the euro because China has an interest in having an alternative to the dollar. You can count on China to back the efforts of the European authorities to maintain the euro.
SPIEGEL: Is that the reason why the euro is still so strong compared to the dollar?
Soros: Yes. There is a mysterious buyer that keeps propping up the euro.
SPIEGEL: And it is not you.
Soros: It is not me (laughs).
SPIEGEL: In the end, will China be the only winner in this crisis?
Soros: China, of course, has been the great winner of globalization, and if globalization collapses, the Chinese will also be among the losers. So they have a strong interest in preserving the current global system. However, in some ways, they have been just as reluctant to accept it as the Germans. Germans have been hesitant to accept responsibility for Europe, and the Chinese have been hesitant to accept responsibility for the world. But they are both being pushed into it.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Soros, we thank you for this interview.
Interview conducted by Gregor Peter Schmitz and Thomas Schulz
- Part 1: 'You Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds'
- Part 2: 'You Can Count on China To Back the Euro'