Erdogan's Endgame Turkey's All-Powerful President Grabs for More
Part 2: The Search for Unconditional Loyalty
Why the Party No Longer Has a Voice
Politics has always been a fight for Erdogan. The son of a strictly religious Black Sea sailor, he first crushed the secular elite. He then he turned his sights on the community of the Islamist preacher Fethullah Gülen, who had made Erdogan's ascendency to power possible in the first place. The power struggle between Erdogan and Gülen reached its climax in the attempted coup of July 15, 2016, which the government continues to blame on Gülen and his followers.
On the night of the coup, Erdogan was on holiday with his family on the Turkish Mediterranean coast and apparently only just managed to escape an assassination attempt. In a FaceTime interview on CNN Türk, he called on his supporters to resist: "Go out onto the streets and squares and give them your answer."
Today, it remains unclear who exactly was behind the attempted coup. Erdogan, after all, has never truly tried to investigate. Instead, he has used the coup attempt as a pretext to go after Gülen supporters and anyone else who opposes his rule: opposition politicians, human rights activists, Kurds and journalists. Moderates within the presidential palace have consistently tried to rein in Erdogan, arguing that the mass arrests would damage the government's credibility. But the president has refused to listen, convinced as he is that he will lose power if he gives even an inch to the opposition.
Early in his political career, Erdogan presented himself as a reformer. He sought to improve relations with the Kurds, he negotiated with the EU about possible membership and he modernized the country. But with every crisis - the Gezi protests, the attempted coup - he has become more authoritarian. He is now only interested in appealing to his Sunni nationalist core constituency, one former minister complains. "Erdogan wants 51 percent, he doesn't care about anything else."
There's a siege mentality at the presidential palace. Erdogan was always distrustful of external forces, but since the attempted coup he has become paranoid, those close to him say. He sees enemies and conspirators everywhere. His staff use encryption apps on their smartphones and the president himself rarely communicates by phone at all out of fear that Gülen supporters could somehow be listening in. He has his meals tested for poison.
At a recent reception, he called on village leaders to keep a close eye on who spends time in their communities: "In the name of our martyrs, we will break the arms and legs of those who want to damage our flag," he said.
'No Turkey Without Erdogan'
Erdogan no longer appoints advisers based on ability, and even their political views are of secondary importance. The only thing necessary is unconditional loyalty. The result is a president surrounded by people who assure him every day that he was chosen by god to rule Turkey. The elections in June are intended to send a message to his critics at home and abroad, says one government politician: "There's no Turkey without Erdogan."
Erdogan has also recast the AKP in his own image. His weekly appearances in parliament are like a football match: the legislators roll out banners and chant battle songs. Anyone who tries to contradict Erdogan or raise their own profile is punished.
AKP politicians recall with a mix of awe and horror how Erdogan destroyed the former prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. In 2014, after Erdogan moved from the prime minister's office to become president, he installed Davutoglu as prime minister against the will of the party. Two years later, though, after Davutoglu's public profile got a boost from negotiating the refugee deal with the Europeans, he became a nuisance to the president.
In May 2016, the "Pelican Dossier" appeared online, in which Davutoglu was denounced as a "traitor." The prime minister, it claimed, had conspired with the Europeans against Erdogan. "In the chess game that the global powers are playing with our country, he (Davutoglu) has accepted the role of the pawn dressed up as a queen," the text stated. Internal documents and statements indicate that Berat Albayrak, the president's son-in-law, was behind the campaign. Shortly after the appearance of the Pelican Dossier, Erdogan replaced Davutoglu with his long-time confidante Binali Yildirim.
Unlike his predecessor, Yildirim shows no signs of seeking the limelight. He stoically accepts the president's reprimands and insults. "Binali doesn't even notice when he is being humiliated by Erdogan," one AKP politician said.
Under Yildirim, the power of the prime minister has migrated completely to the presidential palace. Beyond his family, Erdogan trusts a group of 25 "chief advisers," which he has handpicked and who form a kind of shadow cabinet.
The result is that the Turkish government appears as a monolith from the outside, but behind the scenes, ministers, advisers and parliamentarians are all bitterly jockeying for the president's attention and favor. And he enjoys playing them off against each other. Two factions are embraced in a power struggle: the agitators around Albayrak on one side and the moderate forces such as spokesman Ibrahim Kalin or Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek on the other.
Erdogan has always tended to attack adversaries rather than try to bring them into the fold. He is contemptuous of compromise, seeing it as a sign of weakness. Albayrak encourages this stance. He is also said to have been the one behind the prosecution of German journalist Deniz Yücel, according to a Turkish official familiar with the case.
Albayrak is convinced that if the EU is confronted with the choice between Erdogan and instability, it will opt for Erdogan. He wants the Europeans to treat Turkey the way they treat Egypt, a country that one can do business with, while keeping out of its internal affairs. His people deride politicians such as Simsek who seek dialogue with the EU as "Westerners."
Under Erdogan, a cult of strength has been established in the palace. In April the daily newspaper Cumhuriyet reported that Albayrak had ordered the tapping of the phone of the interior minister, an important rival in the party. The minister, meanwhile, insiders say, has compiled a dossier with compromising material about Albayrak.
Why the Lira Is Collapsing and Erdogan Is So Rich
In the 1990s, critics gave Erdogan the nickname "10 Percent Tayyip" because as mayor of Istanbul, he was said to keep a 10 percent cut of all business deals. His daughter's studies in the United States were paid for by a businessman and between 2008 and 2017 the Erdogan clan is said to have earned 20 million euros in an offshore deal, according to internal documents.
Erdogan, who worked his way up from a childhood in Istanbul's port district to the head of the Turkish state, is convinced that he has earned his wealth. A former minister said that the president considered Turkey to be his property: "He believes he can take everything."
For long these stories of corruption had little resonance in Turkey, since there was enough wealth to go around. But the Erdogan system now appears to be reaching its limits.
The president likes to brag to friends that he has modernized the economy. And early in his tenure, GDP growth in Turkey hit 10 percent annually. Furthermore, between 2002 and 2016, foreign investors plowed over $180 billion into the Turkish economy. More recently, however, the growth rate has slowed, investors have left the country, companies have filed for bankruptcy - and now, the currency is collapsing.
At the end of May, Prime Minister Yildirim and his deputy Simsek, held a crisis meeting in Ankara, searching for a way to halt the lira's decline. They agreed that only an increase in the key interest rate could stabilize the currency, a measure that Erdogan had consistently rejected. Yildirim managed to have a private talk with the president and persuade him to give up his resistance to the interest rate hike, but the move ultimately came too late and the lira only recovered slightly.
The lira's weakness can't exclusively be blamed on Erdogan, but he certainly shares most of the responsibility.
Investors are no longer prepared to accept the president's erratic style of rule, his repression of critics, the cronyism, the curbing of the central bank. They have lost faith in Turkey. "It's like an avalanche that can't be stopped," one Turkish politician, who specializes in economic policy, said.
This is the real reason for the early elections, one insider said. The president wants to be sure he is re-elected before a recession takes hold. The previous government was voted out of office as a result of the economic crisis in 2001. Inside the presidential palace, there is growing concern that history could be repeating itself.
Why Some Erdogan Confidantes Are Planning Their Escapes
Erdogan has taken far-reaching precautions to make sure he wins on June 24: He has formed an alliance with the ultranationalist MHP party; he has extended for the seventh time the state of emergency that was declared after the attempted coup, which makes it harder for his opponents to campaign; and he has placed more pressure on the media. Since the sale of the H ürriyet newspaper to an Erdogan loyalist, the press is almost completely controlled by the government and the opposition parties have been hushed.
Nevertheless, the election result is not the foregone conclusion that Erdogan had expected in April. After 15 years in power, the president seems tired. And there's little of the euphoria that used to be seen at his rallies. One AKP politician says that the party lacks an issue to mobilize the masses. In the referendum on presidential powers last year, the attacks on Germany gained him four or five percentage points. "But we can't repeat this strategy." The damage to the economy would be too great, he said.
At the same time, the opposition is coming together: The Republican People's Party (CHP), the new nationalist IYI party and the Islamist splinter party Saadet have forged an alliance. Only the pro-Kurdish HDP is going it alone, with a lead candidate, Selahattin Demirtas, who is still in jail.
There appear to be two possible outcomes for the election, and either would have dramatic consequences.
The first possible outcome is that Erdogan wins. Then he will complete the transformation of Turkey from a democracy to a one-man state. Erdogan would be both head of state and government, he could decide on the majority of constitutional judges and hire and fire any ministers he liked. Civil society, which despite all the repression has mounted fierce opposition, would be completely demoralized. His opponents would probably withdraw into private life or emigrate.
Some in Europe seem to think that once he won, Erdogan would relax and try to make peace with his opponents. But Erdogan advisers dampen such hopes. "If Erdogan wins on June 24," they predict, "then he will really reign supreme."
In foreign policy, Erdogan will remain a difficult, unreliable partner. A victory could lead to even more self-confidence - and more unilateral action in Syria and Iraq. And advisers indicate that the government may also try to renegotiate the refugee deal with the EU.
The second possible outcome is that Erdogan loses. That would be a triumph for Turkish democracy but could push the country into chaos. Erdogan has told confidantes that he fears being hanged by the military, like former Prime Minister Adnan Menderes, once he is no longer in office.
In the palace, there's already a sense of end times. Of course no one in his immediate circle dares to even discuss a possible defeat. But some members of his staff have begun preparing for flight. He has little hope for himself, one high-ranking government politician said, but he'd at least like to make sure his wife and children could escape abroad.
It can therefore be expected that even if he were to lose, Erdogan would do everything possible to cling to power.
Opposition politicians are preparing themselves for a number of different scenarios: He might manipulate the election result; he could force new elections; he could ignore the result and continue to rule using the state of emergency laws. That would inevitably lead to mass protests and clashes between the president's supporters and opponents.
"No one knows what exactly is going to happen on June 24," one opposition politician said. "Only one thing is certain. After this election, Turkey will be a different country."
With additional reporting by Eren Caylan
- Part 1: Turkey's All-Powerful President Grabs for More
- Part 2: The Search for Unconditional Loyalty