
Photo Gallery: Bosom Buddies
Macho Friends Washington Concerned about Berlusconi-Putin Axis
The host didn't look good. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was "bandaged and bruised from the December attack," noted David Thorne, the US ambassador to Rome in a dispatch sent to Washington. Thorne had been to visit Berlusconi at his country home in Lombardy on New Year's Day in 2010, only two weeks after a mentally ill man had hit the Italian leader in the face with a statuette during a visit to Milan.
The American's visit apparently cheered up the Italian prime minister. Berlusconi showed his guest around the sumptuous villa. In the cable describing the visit, the US diplomat noted with satisfaction that Berlusconi did not ask the US for a single favor. It was clear, Thorne wrote, that the Italian leader wanted to be a good partner to the Americans.
But the harmonious visit was unexpectedly interrupted. The telephone rang: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin wanted to speak with Il Cavaliere.
The American was quickly ushered out. The Russian was more important.
'A Penchant for Partying Hard'
The memo that followed the visit indicated the complicated relationship that the Americans have with Italy's most powerful man. They believe that he is pro-American but they describe their relationship with him as "complex" and his leadership style as "unorthodox."
"Sex scandals, criminal investigations, family problems and financial concerns appear to be weighing heavily on Berlusconi's personal and political health as well as on his decision-making ability," they write. One cable relates that Berlusconi briefly nodded off during the inaugural visit by the US ambassador. "Frequent late nights and a penchant for partying hard mean that he does not get sufficient rest," the ambassador cabled to Washington.
But one factor in particular tarnishes the relationship: Berlusconi's strange fascination for Putin. The Russian's wife and daughter often visit Berlusconi. Strawberry cake and swordfish are on the villa menu when they are there, and Putin telephones to wish them bon appetit.
Originals: The Key Berlusconi/Putin Cables
Click on the headlines below to read the full texts...
XXXXXX: Redacted by the editors.
<<188773>>
1/26/2009 11:48
09ROME97
Embassy Rome
SECRET//NOFORN
08STATE134386|09ROME451
VZCZCXRO4950
OO RUEHFL RUEHNP
DE RUEHRO #0097/01 0261148
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 261148Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1502
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE 4498
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE IMMEDIATE 3404
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN IMMEDIATE 9782
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES IMMEDIATE 3573
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ENRG, EPET, RS, IT
SUBJECT: ITALY-RUSSIA RELATIONS: THE VIEW FROM ROME
REF: A) 08 STATE 134386 B) ROME 451
S e c r e t section 01 of 05 rome 000097
Noforn
sipdis
Dept for inr/i
E.o. 12958: decl: 01/19/2019
Tags: prel, pgov, enrg, epet, rs, it
Subject: italy-russia relations: the view from rome
(c-re8-02675)
Ref: a) 08 state 134386 b) rome 451
Classified By: Ronald P. Spogli, Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b), (d).
1. (U) This is a joint Political and Economic Section cable.
2. (C/NF) Summary. Italy's relationship with Russia is
complex, encompassing historical ideological sympathies,
geostrategic calculations, commercial pressure, energy
dependence, and personal relationships between top leaders.
The combination of these factors creates a strong tendency
for Italy's foreign policy to be highly receptive to Russian
efforts to gain greater political influence in the EU and
to support Russia's efforts to dilute American security
interests in Europe. In its relationship with Russia, energy
is the most important bilateral issue and the quest for
stable energy supplies from Russia frequently forces
Italy to compromise on security and political issues.
A not insignificant concomitant factor is PM
Berlusconi's desire to be seen as an important
European player on foreign policy, leading him to
go where others dare not. End summary.
Roots of Italian Russophilia: Ideology on the Left, a
Long-Standing Market Opportunity on the Right
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. (C/NF) Until the 2008 parliamentary elections, the Italian
Communist party and various leftist splinter groups were a
permanent fixture of the Italian political scene. Throughout the Cold
War members of the Italian communist movement maintained close
ties with the Soviet Union, other communist countries, and many
communist revolutionary movements. Unlike many other communist parties
around the world, the Italian communist movement remained
unapologetic in its continued belief in Marxism-Leninism as a viable
economic alternative to capitalism. While many European leftist
intellectuals recognize that -- aside from an authoritarian approach to
governing - - Putin's Russia bears little resemblance to Communist
ideals, this fact has not deterred Italian communists and other radical
left politicians from being openly pro-Russia on the basis of
ideological solidarity. This, combined with the advanced average age o
most high-level Italian politicians (65-70), prevents many in the
far left of Italy's political spectrum from moving beyond a worldview
developed (and apparently frozen) during the Cold War.
4. (C/NF) Throughout the Cold War, Italian business interests
frequently skirted the line of what was appropriate in their
pursuit of the Soviet market. After the collapse of the Soviet
Union, the explosion of consumer wealth in Russia created massive deman
for high-end and luxury Italian exports. From 1998 to 2007
Italian exports to Russia grew by 230 percent, from 2.7 billion Euros
to 9.5 Billion. Many of Italy's leading businessmen began to see
Russia as a limitless market that could substitute for loss of export
revenue from other parts of the world. These businessmen maintain
strong ties to the pro-business, free-market-oriented politicians on
the right, including the most visible patron of Italy's business
elite: PM Silvio Berlusconi.
Putin Most Influential Figure in Italy's Russia Policy
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -
5. (C/NF) While Italy's political parties, the MFA and ENI
exert some influence on Italy's Russia policy, by far the most importan
factor is the personal attention Putin devotes to the relationship.
By our reckoning, Putin has held more bilateral meetings with
sitting Italian PMs in the recent past than any other world leader.
He was the first world leader to meet with Berlusconi after the 2008
elections, arriving in Sardegna to visit the PM designate
before the latter had even been sworn in. Berlusconi believes that
Putin is his close and personal friend and continues to have more
contact with Putin than with any other world leader. During the Georgi
crisis, Berlusconi spoke to Putin on a daily basis for a period of
almost a week. The basis of the friendship is hard to determine, but
many interlocutors have told us that Berlusconi believes that
Putin, a fellow 'tycoon', trusts Berlusconi more than other European
leader. (A contact in the PM's office told us that their frequent
meetings are accompanied by exchanges of lavish gifts). Berlusconi
admires Putin's macho, decisive, and authoritarian governing style,
which the Italian PM believes matches his own. From the Russian side,
it appears that Putin has devoted much energy to developing
Berlusconi's trust.
6. (S/NF) Contacts in both the opposition center-left PD
Rome 00000097 002 of 005
party and Berlusconi's own PdL party, however, have hinted at a more
nefarious connection. They believe that Berlusconi and his cronies are
profiting personally and handsomely from many of the energy
deals between Italy and Russia. The Georgian ambassador in Rome
has told us that the GOG believes Putin has promised Berlusconi a
percentage of profits from any pipelines developed by Gazprom in
coordination with ENI. Whenever we raise the issue of Russia and the P
with our contacts in PdL, Berlusconi's own party, they have usually
pointed us to Valentino Valentini, a member of parliament and somewhat
shadowy figure who operates as Berluscon's key man on Russia, albeit
with no staff or even a secretary. Valentini, a Russian-speaker who
travels to Russia several times per month, frequently appears at
Berlusconi's side when he meets other world leaders. What he does in
Moscow during his frequent visits is unclear but he is widely
rumored to be looking after Berlusconi's business interests in Russia.
Our contacts uniformly deem Valentini, a multilingual former
interpreter, close to Berlusconi with regard to Russia, but not a polic
person.
7. (C/NF) All of our interlocutors - xxxxxxxxxxxx - report that Berlusconi determines
Italy's policy on Russia single-handedly, neither seeking nor
accepting counsel. Virtually all are reluctant to confront the PM even
when he is at his worst on Russia. In November 2008, after a
disastrous press conference in which, inter alia, the PM described NATO
expansion, recognition of Kosovo's independence, and missile
defense as "U.S. provocations" of Russia, GOI officials did a classic
duck- and-cover. In response to our objections, MFA and PM staff
sheepishly directed us to the PM himself, rather than deliver
the unpleasant news to him that he had angered not only the
Americans but other members of the Contact Group for the Balkans, not t
mention the Czechs and Poles. Even FM Frattini admits to wielding no
influence on Berlusconi on Russia. During an early September
visit to Italy, former VP Cheney confronted Frattini on Italy's
very public and unhelpful stance on the Georgia conflict. A subdued
Frattini noted that, while he had strong opinions on the issue, he
nevertheless received his marching orders from the PM.
8. (C/NF) Distressingly, Berlusconi treats Russia policy as
he does his domestic political affairs - tactically and day-to-day.
His overwhelming desire is to remain in Putin's good graces, and
he has frequently voiced opinions and declarations that have been
passed to him directly by Putin. One such example: in the aftermath of
the Georgia crisis, Berlusconi began (and continues) to insist
that Georgia was the aggressor and that the GOG was responsible
for several hundred civilian deaths in South Ossetia.
No Institutional Leadership on Russia
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
9. (C/NF) Trying to determine who might have some influence
on Berlusconi's Russia policy is not an easy task. One thing is
certain, however - it is not the foreign policy institutions
of the GOI. FM Frattini is widely seen as only the messenger for PM
Berlusconi's Russia policy - indeed he termed himself as much
to VP Cheney during the latter's September 2008 visit to Rome.
Within the professional ranks, resources and expertise are scant.
Italy's MFA contains only one full-time diplomat assigned to cover
Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union: the Office
Director. The Deputy Office Director position and single Desk Officer
position assigned to cover all the countries of the FSU are vacant.
Italy's dire budget situation is likely to prevent the hiring of
additional staff at the MFA for at least two years, according to one MF
source. The Office Director's direct supervisor - the A/S equivalent
- is also responsible for the Balkans and the rest of Europe, but
she, like Frattini, appears to have little or no input to GOI
Russia policy. The PM's staff does not fare much better. The
Office of the Diplomatic Advisor is thinly staffed - with only one
officer assigned to each geographic region. The position covering
Russia is staffed by a midlevel diplomat who is in the process of being
transferred. No replacement is likely to be named. As a result, the
officer covering the Middle East (also the deputy for the office)
will be forced to take on those duties in addition to his already
overwhelming portfolio and management duties.
10. (C/NF) In 2008 the MFA undertook an effort to produce a
long-term foreign policy strategy for the GOI. In a paper entitled
"Rapporto 2020" the MFA outlined its strategic vision for the next
decade and a half. The document notes that geostrategic realities have
created the need for Italy to adapt its foreign policy with regard to
Russia and calls for Italy to seek 'a privileged relationship' with
Moscow in order to press its overwhelmingly preeminent bilateral
concern: energy.
Rome 00000097 003 of 005
Energy Becomes Key Bilateral Issue
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
11. (C/NF) With virtually no domestic energy reserves, no
domestic nuclear power, and an ambitious parastatal energy company,
Italy's key bilateral concern with Russia has become the quest for
long-term guarantees of energy supplies. The GOI has supported ENI and
other energy giants' efforts to create a unique partnership with
Russia and Gazprom for long-term cooperation. ENI, Italy's most
prominent energy parastatal, wields immense political power; its
business strategy has focused on complicated geopolitical environments
generally perceived as overly risky by many of its international
competitors. ENI's lobbying efforts vis-(-vis the GOI are better
funded than most government offices. It hosts one diplomatic
advisor assigned from the MFA. Going by press reports alone, we
would judge that PM Berlusconi grants its director, Paolo Scaroni, as
much access as he does his own FM.xxxxxxxxxxxx. Members of political
parties on both sides of the aisle have told us that ENI is
one of the leading financial contributors to Italy's many
think-tanks - many of which produce public diplomacy discussions and
events on the importance of Italy-Russia relations. At one such event
in 2007, a conference on Central Asia, representatives from ENI and
Edison were given 30 minutes each to speak, while the four Foreign
Ministers and Deputy Foreign Minister of five Central Asian former
Soviet states were all crammed into a single hour. There is even
suspicion that ENI maintains journalists on its payroll.
12. (C/NF) Members of political parties from both sides of
the aisle have told us that ENI does not limit its dialogue with the
government to energy issues. One member of the opposition center-left
PD party told poloffs that ENI's presence in Russia exceeds that of
Italy's understaffed embassy. While it is unclear how much policy
coordination occurs between ENI and the Russian political
structure, the same PD party members noted that ENI had as much contact
with Russian political and economic leaders as the embassy, if not
more, and political messages were frequently passed through such
commercial/economic channels. Back in Rome, ENI maintains
strong contacts with members of the Italian parliament - something
the MFA does not do (apart from requested briefings to members of the
foreign affairs committees).
An Energy Policy without the Policy
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
13. (C/NF) ENI and other energy giants have managed to press
their case quite effectively within the highest ranks of the GOI.
Italian leaders on both sides of the aisle seem strangely unconcerned
about dependence on Russian energy. They point out that Italy
depended on Russian coal during the darkest days of the Cold War with n
dire consequence. Italians are also lulled into complacency by
the fact that geographic proximity to North African resources means
that they are far less dependent on Russia than are the Germans or the
former Eastern bloc countries.
14. (C/NF) During a March 2008 visit to ENI Headquarters
embassy staff were given a briefing on ENI's Russian energy
operations (available on Embassy Rome's Classified web site). ENI's
view of the European energy situation was disturbingly similar to that
of GAZPROM and the Kremlin, and at times laced with rhetorical
flourishes reminiscent of Soviet-era double-speak: according to ENI,
the real threat to Western Europe's energy security is not Russia --
it is Ukraine. The real solution to Europe's energy insecurity,
according to ENI, lies in more direct pipeline connections to Russian
gas fields and a need for pipelines that do not go through
Ukraine - the rationale for the South Stream and Nord Stream pipelines
(ref b).
ENI's engineering arm hopes to construct both pipelines using
experience gained in the construction of the Blue Stream
pipeline that connects Russia and Turkey under the Eastern portion of
the Black Sea. Additionally, ENI seeks full partnership with
Russia on the South Stream project. GOI and ENI contacts have reported
that the company was having trouble getting a firm Russian
commitment to this South Stream partnership. The plummeting price of
hydrocarbons may have reduced the economic incentives for this project,
but many analysts believe that Russian geo-strategic concerns will
trump business considerations on this project. The most recent
Russia- Ukraine gas dispute seems to have revived interest in the
Nord Stream and South Stream projects, especially among those who see
Ukraine as the problem.
Rome 00000097 004 of 005
15. (C/NF) Italy is not totally blind to the dangers of its
dependence on Russia, however, and it is taking some steps
that may prevent an increase in the percentage of their energy that
they get from Russia. Upon returning to power, Berlusconi announced
that he would return the country to nuclear power. While the GOI
seems serious, this project will require eye-popping expenditures,
long- term commitment, and the resolution of thorny environmental
problems. Some fear that the nuclear project was launched in response
to an oil price of $140 per barrel, and wonder if the Italian
commitment to nuclear power will recede if oil prices stay low. Italy
is also increasing its use of Liquid Natural Gas and is finishing
work on a new terminal in the Northern Adriatic. While
less-than-enthusiastic about the EU's complex Nabucco pipeline, the GOI
seems to be supporting the smaller-scale Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline
project designed to bring Caspian gas to Western Europe. Edison, a
French company with Italian roots, is trying to determine if it
should commit to this project. While Azeri gas supplies and
Turkey's willingness to allow the gas to flow West are unresolved
issues, Edison believes its project has a chance of succeeding
because unlike Nabucco, it is small enough -- it believes -- not to
provoke opposition from Russia. The GOI -- especially powerful
Minister for Economic Development Scajola -- supports the TGI project
(in fact GOI officials complain if the U.S. sometimes seems to imply
that Nabucco should have priority). There is fear that a successful
launch of South Stream would -- by promising to meet demand -- doom
both South Stream and Nabucco.
A Foreign Policy Designed to Deny Russia Nothing
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
16. (C/NF) The combination of historical ideological
sympathy, energy dependence, lack of institutional influence, and a
close personal relationship between Berlusconi and Putin serve to
provide Russia with an apparently trusted ally, overtly willing to work
overtime within the EU on Moscow's behalf. Russia can count on Italy
to support its efforts to remove irritants in its relations with
the West, including:
- pressure on/within OSCE to overlook Russia's lack of
compliance with its legally binding Istanbul commitments on frozen
conflicts,
- weak support or even opposition to NATO efforts to build
closer ties to Georgia and Ukraine,
- weak initial support for international efforts to recognize
Kosovo's independence,
- unhelpful comments on U.S. bilateral Missile Defense plans
with Poland and Czech Republic,
- support for Russian President Medvedev's plans to redefine
European security architecture to undermine OSCE and NATO.
- support for Russian efforts to undermine EU and US energy
security initiatives for Europe.
17. (C/NF) In the past, Berlusconi's highly-prized personal
relationship with U.S. President Bush was an important
counterweight to Russian influence, but many pro-U.S. Italian party
officials on both sides of the aisle have worried to us that Bush's
departure could tempt Berlusconi to move closer to Russia. For his
part, Berlusconi has publicly stated that he would like to become a
bridge between the U.S. and Russia and to "educate a young and
inexperienced new American president" on how to deal with the Russians.
If the past is any guide, this will likely mean an intensified
effort to press the Russian agenda with the U.S.
Mitigating the Problem: Pushing Back on a Corrosive Influence
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
18. (C/NF) To tackle the problem head-on, Post has deployed
a robust diplomatic and public affairs strategy targeting key figures
inside and outside government. Our aim is two-fold: educate our
interlocutors more profoundly on Russian activities and thus
the context for U.S. policy, as well as build a counter- weight
of dissenting opinion on Russia policy, especially within
Berlusconi's political party. . Since the beginning of the summer, wit
Berlusconi's return to power and the Georgia crisis, we have
been engaging with GOI leaders aggressively at all levels. Pol,
PA and Econoffs have engaged party members, GOI contacts, think
tanks and even press to provide an alternative narrative to the
Berlusconi insistence that Russia is a democratic and stable country
that has been provoked by the West. The effort seems to be paying
off. The opposition has begun taking jabs at Berlusconi by portraying
him as choosing the wrong side of the debate. Some in the PdL have
begun to approach us privately to say that they would like greater
dialogue with us on the Russia issue, and have indicated their
Rome 00000097 005 of 005
interest in challenging Berlusconi's giddiness about Putin. While we
have a long way to go in changing the narrative, unfortunately, we have
help - in the form of a PM who appears increasingly to be the
mouthpiece of Putin.
Comment
- - - -
19. (C/NF) The bilateral relationship between the U.S. and
Italy is excellent and encompasses tremendous cooperation
on many levels and on many fronts.
Unfortunately, Berlusconi efforts to "repair" the relationship
between the West and Russia (which as he told the Ambassador in their
farewell meeting on February 23, "sticks in my gut as a large
undigested mass") are threatening his credibility and
becoming a real irritant in our relationship. We can help
get him back on the right track by sending him a clear signal
that the U.S. does not need an interlocutor for its important bilateral
relationship with Russia and that his insistence on undermining existin
structures and channels based on common interests and shared values
within the alliance in exchange for short term stability is not a
strategy Washington wishes to pursue.
Spogli
XXXXXX: Redacted by the editors.
<<231600>>
10/27/2009 15:17
09ROME1187
Embassy Rome
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
09ROME1143
VZCZCXRO1363
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHRO #1187/01 3001517
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 271517Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2810
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 3861
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN 0293
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 4074
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IT
SUBJECT: ITALY: SCANDALS TAKING TOLL ON BERLUSCONI'S
REF: ROME 1143
C o n f i d e n t i a l section 01 of 03 rome 001187
Noforn
sipdis
E.o. 12958: decl: 10/23/2026
Tags: pgov, prel, it
Subject: italy: scandals taking toll on berlusconi's
personal and political health
Ref: rome 1143
Rome 00001187 001.2 of 003
Classified By: Ambassador David H. Thorne for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. Though PM Berlusconi's parliamentary
majority is strong, and nobody is yet willing to predict his
political demise, a growing list of scandals, adverse court
decisions and health issues have weakened him and led some
erstwhile Berlusconi allies to begin hedging their bets on
his political longevity. In a souring political environment,
talk of conspiracy theories often trumps real political
debate and distracts the Berlusconi government from pursuing,
or even developing, a coherent political agenda. END SUMMARY.
Private matters weighing on berlusconi
2. (SBU) After a long hot spring and summer of personal and
professional scandals, PM Berlusconi, returning from the
August recess appeared briefly rejuvenated by a successful G8
summit and continued popularity with his base. However, the
first of several blows fell on October 7 when a civil court
ruled that the Berlusconi family's flagship business,
Finnivest, must pay a rival company Euro 750 million for
damages occurred as a result of a Finnivest lawyer bribing a
judge in a decision involving both companies. Two days
later, the Italian Constitutional Court concluded that one of
the Berlusconi government's first pieces of legislation, a
2008 law postponing criminal investigations against
Berlusconi and other senior officials, was unconstitutional
(REFTEL). As a result, Italian magistrates have, once again,
taken up several long-standing criminal cases against
Berlusconi, with one case due to resume as early as November.
3. (C/NF) Two officials xxxxxxxxxxxx close
to Berlusconi, in separate conversations with the Embassy,
recently described the Prime Minister in strikingly similar
terms. Council of Ministers U/S Gianni Letta told the
Ambassador October 23 that Berlusconi is "physically and
politically weak," describing the normally hyperactive
Berlusconi as "not energetic." Longtime Berlusconi friend
xxxxxxxxxxxx told an Embassy political officer October 22 that, "we are all
worried about his health," noting that Berlusconi has fainted
three times in public in recent years and that his medical
tests have come back "a complete mess." xxxxxxxxxxxx said
Berlusconi's frequent late nights and penchant for partying
hard mean he does not get sufficient rest. The Italian press
reported October 27 that Berlusconi has a mild case of
scarlet fever, which he reportedly contracted from his
grandchild. (Note: Berlusconi dozed off briefly during the
Ambassador's initial courtesy call in September, and looked
distracted and tired at an October 19 event attended by the
Ambassador. End note.)
4. (C/NF) xxxxxxxxxxxx termed Berlusconi overwhelmed with private
concerns. He noted that Berlusconi has felt alienated from
his family since his wife, Veronica Lario, set off a public
uproar by publishing an open letter last spring asking for a
divorce and accusing the 74-year old PM of consorting with
minors. Lario is reportedly asking for fifty percent of
Berlusconi's personal assets plus Euro 100 million in yearly
support. At the same time, according to xxxxxxxxxxxxx Berlusconi
is afraid he will need to liquidate important business assets
to make the Euro 750 million payment ordered by a civil
court. xxxxxxxxxxxx added that a Palermo-based mafia
investigation involving another longtime Berlusconi ally and
confidant already convicted of ties to organized crime could
turn into a damaging public spectacle.
Leading to conspiracy theories
5. (C/NF) A number of Embassy contacts have described a
political environment dominated by conspiracy theories. In
the wake of the two court rulings, Berlusconi accused
President of the Republic Napolitano of working against him
and lashed out emotionally against the judicial system, in
general. Letta told the Ambassador that Berlusconi's
outburst had led to "frosty" relations with Napolitano and
said the episode has made him appear weak. Several PdL
officials have hinted darkly to us that "institutional
forces" are trying to unseat Berlusconi. (Note: In Italian
political parlance, "institutional forces" can serve to mean
one of many groups operating and wielding influence behind
the scenes: business groups, intelligence services,
freemasons, the Vatican, the magistracy, the United States,
etc. While Italians are notably conspiracy-minded, their
paranoia -- at least as far as Italian domestic politics go
-- has historically been well-founded. End note.)
Rome 00001187 002.2 of 003
6. (C/NF) xxxxxxxxxxxx confided that Berlusconi believes the
Italian intelligence services might have deliberately
entrapped him in his alleged affair involving a minor.
During xxxxxxxxxxxx conversation with the Embassy political
officer, xxxxxxxxxxxx to confide that an
arrest was imminent of four Italian Carabinieri believed to
be blackmailing the Lazio regional governor with a sex-tape.
(Note: The story of the Lazio governor and a transsexual
prostitute exploded in the press a few days later. End note.)
xxxxxxxxxxxx told the Embassy officer that this case has
convinced Berlusconi that he cannot trust his own
intelligence services. Separately, on October 21, Northern
League leader Umberto Bossi, commenting on Berlusconi's
troubles, told the Ambassador that organized crime figures
had probably set the trap for Berlusconi on some of the sex
scandals, but that nobody denies that Berlusconi willingly
went for the bait.
7. (C/NF) In a replay of the foreign press-induced scandals
of last spring and summer, a London Times article accusing
Italian troops in Afghanistan of paying off Taliban
insurgents sparked speculation in and out of the GoI that the
USG might have leaked the information to discredit the
Berlusconi government. Moreover, it is not uncommon these
days for PdL politicians to speculate-- via the press or even
directly to Embassy officers-- that the new U.S.
administration would like to see the Berlusconi government
fall; some even believe the USG is actively undermining
Berlusconi. The Ambassador recently probed Letta and Foreign
Minister Franco Frattini to determine whether they shared
this belief; both averred that they thought Berlusconi's
relationship with the US administration was strong.
And palace intrigue
8. (C/NF) One of Berlusconi's would-be heirs, Chamber of
Deputies President Gianfranco Fini, picked one of his
periodic fights with Berlusconi in September, ostensibly over
euthanasia and living wills, but the real issues were
Berlusconi's non-democratic leadership style inside the party
and the growing weight of the Northern League (LN). More
recently, the powerful Minister of Economy, Giulio Tremonti,
has openly challenged Berlusconi on fiscal policy, leading to
talk simultaneously of his possible resignation as well as
the possibility he was seeking to eventually succeed
Berlusconi. In response to a direct question from the
Ambassador, Gianni Letta said there was a small, but
unlikely, possibility the government could fall. xxxxxxxxxxxx
told us Tremonti, Fini and former Minister of Interior
Giuseppe Pisanu are laying the groundwork for a
post-Berlusconi succession struggle but felt the government
remained stable for the time being.
As well as erratic decisions
9. (C/NF) Media mogul Berlusconi might be gaffe-prone when
speaking off the cuff, but he has historically shown himself
astute at strategic messaging. Those skills were noticeably
absent in a recent incident which provoked both criticism and
head-scratching from Berlusconi friend and foe alike. Ahead
of a three-day trip to Russia to celebrate Vladimir Putin's
birthday in mid-October, Berlusconi put out a press line that
the visit was a "strictly private affair." This announcement
was met with disbelief and some mockery. Adding to the
mystery, however, the day before his departure, Berlusconi
canceled his participation in the state visit of Jordan's
King Abdullah of Jordan, staying in Milan with the
explanation that he was feeling under the weather.
Berlusconi, who prides himself on his personal relationships
with key Middle East interlocutors thus, unavoidably, left
the impression that, in choosing private fun over statecraft,
he was husbanding his flagging energies for a blow-out party
at Putin's private dacha. With the further news that
Berlusconi was accompanied on the trip solely by Valentino
Valentini, an unofficial intermediary/bagman who serves as
Berlusconi's interpreter, Italy's political class openly
questioned whether Berlusconi was going to Russia principally
because the scrutiny of his private time by Italian and
foreign photographers had made parties in Italy too risky for
the time being.
Comment
10. (C/NF) Sex scandals, criminal investigations, family
problems and financial concerns appear to be weighing heavily
on Berlusconi's personal and political health, as well as on
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his decision-making ability. It is too early to begin
speculating about Berlusconi's political demise, and
Berlusconi has a well-known knack for rebounding. However,
though most are trying hard not to be too obvious about it,
some of Berlusconi's own lieutenants have apparently decided
it is not too early to begin laying the groundwork for "il
dopo," as Italians call the potential post-Berlusconi era. In
this souring political environment, conspiracy theories have
all but supplanted serious political debate. Septel will
address the implications of Berlusconi's fortunes on how we
do business with the government. END COMMENT
thorne
<<242287>>
01.01.2010 15:02
10ROME1
Embassy Rome
CONFIDENTIAL
VZCZCXRO9499
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHRO #0001/01 0011502
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011502Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3072
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE IMMEDIATE 3953
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN IMMEDIATE 0393
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES IMMEDIATE 4177
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, IT
SUBJECT: VISITING WITH A RECUPERATING BERLUSCONI
C o n f i d e n t i a l section 01 of 03 rome 000001
Sipdis
E.o. 12958: decl: 01/01/2020
Tags: prel, pgov, pinr, it
Subject: visiting with a recuperating berlusconi
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Classified By: Ambassador David H. Thorne. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. C) Summary: The Ambassador visited recuperating Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi at his Lombardy estate for a
private luncheon December 30. The Ambassador had suggested
he visit Berlusconi after the Prime Minister was assaulted at
a Milan rally in mid-December. Accompanied by Gianni Letta,
the Undersecretary in the Prime Minister's office and
effectively Berlusconi's second in command, Ambassador flew
up for the meeting on the Prime Minister's plane. Bandaged
and bruised from the December attack, Berlusconi was
nonetheless upbeat and eager to show off his new project for
training Italy's elite and share his thoughts on European
leaders and domestic politics. Berlusconi was effusive about
U.S.-Italian relations and Letta promised action on roping in
ENI operations in Iran and pushing ahead on Megaports. End
Summary
The Recuperating Prime Minister
-------------------------------
2. C) Following the Ambassador's call to Gianni Letta
suggesting the Ambassador visit the Prime Minister during his
recuperation, Letta, the Undersecretary in the Prime
Minister's Office, invited Ambassador Thorne to accompanied
him to Milan on December 30 for a private afternoon with the
Prime Minister. The three hour session, held in Italian,
involved only the Prime Minister, Letta and the Ambassador,
and included a visit to Berlusconi's latest endeavor, a
private training school for Italy's elite, and a wide-ranging
lunch with the two top decision makers in the Italian
government.
3. C) Berlusconi was still bandaged and scarred from the
assault in early December where a mentally unstable man
hurled a die cast model of Milan's cathedral at his head.
Berlusconi noted that the missile had struck a glancing blow
to his cheek, cutting him, breaking his nose and some of his
teeth, but if it had hit him straight on "it would have
killed" him. Letta recounted separately that Berlusconi had
slumped into a depression following the attack - "he's an
impresario, he wants everyone to love him " - but that had
snapped out of it and was on the mend. Letta also noted that
their tour of Berlusconi's new project site was the Prime
Minister's first excursion outdoors since his release from
the hospital.
U.S.-Italy: A Prized Relationship
---------------------------------
4. C) In luncheon discussions, Berlusconi unabashedly stated
that he prized Italy's relationship with the U.S. and that
his government stood ready to help us, whatever the issue.
He noted that Italy owed the United States a debt of
gratitude for salvation during World War II, and for
protection throughout the Cold War. On Afghanistan, basing
issues, and other tough problems, Italy was committed to
helping the U.S. get to the right solution. He noted that he
hoped that the Italian increase in Afghanistan would help
President Obama and address the situation on the ground.
Berlusconi on European Leaders
------------------------------
5. C) The Prime Minister and Letta also gave their run down
of current European political leadership. Berlusconi
assessed that Sarkozy's star was clearly waning in European
circles and that the French President did not command the
same influence he did a year ago. Letta was less convinced,
noting to the Ambassador that both Berlusconi and Sarkozy
were "big dogs angling for the same spotlight." Berlusconi
recounted how he had played an instrumental role in the
Spring in persuading a reluctant Erdogan to accept Danish PM
Rasmussen as the new NATO Secretary General, overcoming the
Turkish President's profound irritation at Rasmussen for not
silencing Kurdish language radio stations despite numerous
requests. On Russia, Berlusconi felt that Putin and Medvedev
got along well, respected each other, and had an effective
relationship. In fact, farewells after lunch were
unexpectedly cut short by an incoming call from Putin.
Iran: Appalled by violence, Will try to rope in ENI
--------------------------------------------- ------
6. C) On Iran, Berlusconi noted that he was appalled by the
Iranian crackdown. He offered the capabilities of the
Italian intelligence services and assured full sharing of
information gathered on the internal dynamics in Tehran.
Letta, as the supervising authority over Italy's intelligence
services, assured the Ambassador of a continuation of our
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already excellent bilateral cooperation on the issue. Letta
also promised that he would talk to ENI CEO Scaroni about the
energy giant's ongoing operations in Iran and, if he could,
persuade them to halt activities.
Megaports - GOI to determine POC
--------------------------------
7. C) In response to the U.S. request to move forward on
Megaports, Letta told the Ambassador that the issue would be
discussed at the Council of Ministers meeting on January 8
and that they would be in contact soon thereafter to convey
which ministry would have lead in the GOI for implementing
the project and as such be the primary interlocutor for our
Embassy.
Italy's Courts - Problem Number One
-----------------------------------
8. C) Berlusconi forthrightly identified the magistratura -
Italy's judiciary and courts -- as Italy's "biggest problem"
and told the Ambassador that he was ready to forge an
alliance with the center left opposition to implement
judicial reform. He noted that a legal system where issues
were never definitively resolved -- where you can be absolved
of a crime and yet have the case resurrected later - sapped
Italy's political and economic system. He argued that this
is what has happened in his own case, where he has been
cleared in the past but the same charges keep on returning
repeatedly. He said that he had allies in the opposition on
the need for reform, including PD Leader Bersani. Letta
cautioned the government won't know if it has the clout to
deliver on such an idea unless it secures a decent showing in
regional elections in March 2010.
Smart Guys in the Opposition
----------------------------
9. C) Berlusconi and Letta displayed a great deal of respect
for opposition leaders. Berlusconi praised the Democratic
Party Leader, Pier Luigi Bersani as a "straight shooter" who
was fair with a top rate intellect. Separately Letta was
also complimentary about former Prime Minister (and
archrival) Massimo D'Alema who he credited with showing
courage and integrity during the Balkans crisis and taking
some very tough decisions. Letta noted that D'Alema's
prickliness and "smartest guy in the room" demeanor made
dealing with him a chore, but acknowledged his judgment and
political effectiveness, which was why Berlusconi backed him
for the EU Foreign Minister position despite their
differences. Letta told the Ambassador that he did not have a
clear judgment on how DiPietro will play in domestic politics
and looked forward to future conversations. On other
domestic political issues, Letta thought that the current
estrangement between the governing PDL party and Sicilian
President Lombardo was a minor issue and they would patch it
up quickly.
Worried about a flat 2010
-------------------------
10. C) Both Berlusconi and Letta expressed concern about the
limited prospects for economic growth in 2010. Berlusconi
thought that Italy had weathered the past year of the
financial crisis fairly well but thought it would be a
challenge to produce enough growth in 2010 to start replacing
jobs lost. The Prime Minister was less concerned that a
financial meltdown in Greece would have EU-wide impact. He
said that he had a good relationship with Greek PM Papendreou
and was confident that he could right the situation.
New Media - Important for Liberty
---------------------------------
11. C) In response to the Ambassador's questions to the Prime
Minister about the role of the internet, Berlusconi shot back
"it's important for liberty." New media - particularly
Facebook which has been instrumental in the past month in
organizing a national "No Berlusconi Day" and more
controversially in continuing to host "Kill Berlusconi" pages
- has vexed the GOI, - but the Prime Minister stated that he
felt the evolving media was both critical to the future and
also to the preservation of liberty. But he felt there
needed to be better tuned controls to prevent the most
extreme use of the new outlets.
The Berlusconi Leadership Academy
---------------------------------
12. C) The Prime Minister commenced the visit by personally
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conducting a guided tour of his most recent project, a
private academy to train Italy's brightest young minds.
Berlusconi led Letta and the Ambassador on a personal tour of
a newly rehabbed Lombardy estate that will serve as the home
of the enterprise. The completely renovated 17th century
country mansion, Villa Gernetto, will house a special school
set to open in March for one hundred of Italy's most talented
young leaders, completely funded from Berlusconi's personal
fortune. The Prime Minister intends to choose the students
himself and he envisions an environment where Italy's best
and brightest live and study, taught by world leaders "like
Blair and Clinton."
Comment
-------
13. C) The Ambassador's intimate afternoon with Italy's two
top decision makers was both a testament to the priority
Berlusconi gives the U.S.-Italy relationship but also perhaps
a sign that the GOI has achieved its long-sought level
comfort and ease with the Obama administration. It is also a
dividend of the Ambassador's cultivation of the relationship
with Letta, which has opened up a personal channel to the
Prime Minister. The Italian press coverage of the following
day clearly took this message from what they viewed as an
extraordinary private session. The Prime Minister was clear
that he expects to be called upon to deliver for the U.S.,
which he will do out of principle, not self-interest.
Despite being given numerous openings, neither the Prime
Minister nor Letta asked for anything from the U.S. during
the lengthy luncheon. A striking aspect of the session was
Letta's clear position as co-regent, with Berlusconi
deferring regularly to his colleague and with Letta airing
opposing points of view to his boss during the luncheon.
Thorne
Berlusconi, for his part, is only too happy to attend Putin's parties, once even changing an appointment with King Abdullah II of Jordan to do so. "Berlusconi thus, unavoidably, left the impression that, in choosing private fun over statecraft, he was husbanding his flagging energies for a blow-out party at Putin's private dacha," the US diplomats noted. Since revelations about his earlier excesses have come to light, wild parties in Italy have become too risky for Berlusconi, the Americans speculated.
In early 2009, the Russian-Italian relationship was the subject of a nine page memo by then US Ambassador to Italy Ronald Spogli. "Berlusconi believes that Putin is his close and personal friend and continues to have more contact with Putin than with any other world leader," he wrote. The Italian leader, Spogli wrote, admires Putin's macho style of governing and sees in his Russian friend a "fellow tycoon."
Conspiracy Theories
This Russian-Italian axis does not suit the Americans at all. Because Berlusconi has negotiated generous conditions for the Italian oil and energy giant Eni with the Russian firm Gazprom, and because he generally supports Russian energy projects rather than those of Western countries, the Americans see their energy interests endangered.
US diplomats believe Berlusconi is immune to political influence. He generally makes decisions relating to Russia by himself, and Italian diplomats are seldom allowed to get involved. When former US Vice President Dick Cheney asked about Russo-Italian relations, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini apparently just shrugged his shoulders -- he had nothing to say about Russia himself.
Is it just a simple matter of friendship? It's a question that plagues Washington's diplomats, making them susceptible to many an unproven conspiracy theory. In one dispatch, Ambassador Spogli documented such suspicions. Italian politicians as well as foreign diplomats speak of an arrangement between Putin and Berlusconi, he wrote.
"They believe that Berlusconi and his cronies are profiting personally and handsomely from many of the energy deals between Italy and Russia," Spogli wrote. "The Georgian ambassador in Rome has told us that the Georgian government believes Putin has promised Berlusconi a percentage of profits from any pipelines developed by Gazprom in coordination with ENI."
The key figure in this theory is Valentino Valentini, an Italian parliamentarian who is Berlusconi's most important adviser on Russia. The "somewhat shadowy figure" speaks Russian and travels to Russia several times a month, according to Spogli. He often turns up at Berlusconi's side too. "What he does in Moscow during his frequent visits is unclear but he is widely rumored to be looking after Berlusconi's business interests in Russia," Spogli writes.
'The Product of Fantasy'
The source of these assertions is not clear. Georgia could certainly have an interest in casting Russia in a bad light. When approached by SPIEGEL, the Georgian government denied being in possession of such information and said it was not the source. Berlusconi's office said that the accusations against both Valentini and Berlusconi are "the product of fantasy and without foundation." Putin's office issued a statement to SPIEGEL saying that the accusations are "completely without basis." It is "absurd or malicious to accuse them of having personal interests," the statement read.
But Washington appears interested in at least investigating the rumors. In January, the US State Department asked the US embassies in Rome and Moscow to assemble "any information on the personal relationship" between Putin and Berlusconi as well as information about "personal investments" that could influence their political policies. It was signed by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
US President Barack Obama, for his part, took his time in granting the Italian leader an audience in Washington. During his European trip in early 2009, he ignored him.